We provide a systematic empirical assessment of the Minsky hypothesis that business fluctuations stem from irrational swings in expectations. Using predictable firm-level forecast errors, we build an aggregate index of irrational expectations and use it to provide three sets of results. First, we show that our index predicts aggregate credit cycles. Next, we show that these predictable credit cycles drive cycles in firm-level debt issuance and investment and similar cycles between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, as Minsky predicts. Finally, we show more pronounced cycles in firm-level financing and investment for firms with ex ante more optimistic expectations. (JEL G31, G32, G40, E32, E44)

中文翻译：

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信贷周期、预期和企业投资


我们对明斯基假设（即商业波动源于预期的非理性波动）进行了系统的实证评估。利用可预测的公司层面的预测误差，我们建立了非理性预期的综合指数，并用它来提供三组结果。首先，我们表明我们的指数可以预测总体信贷周期。接下来，我们表明，正如明斯基所预测的那样，这些可预测的信贷周期驱动着公司层面的债务发行和投资周期，以及财务受限和不受约束的公司之间的类似周期。最后，我们显示了事前预期更为乐观的公司在公司层面的融资和投资方面存在更明显的周期。 （捷尔 G31、G32、G40、E32、E44）