Non-grain production (NGP) represents a complex social phenomenon driven by a range of interests that involve agricultural development, livelihood security, and ecological preservation. It significantly alters the structure of agricultural production and vegetation cover, influencing regional grain supply and the multifunctional composition of agriculture. To achieve sustainable development goals related to grain supply and ecological stability, this study proposes a research framework for multifunctional evaluation and multiscenario regulation of non-grain farmlands (NGFs). First, NGFs in the Wuhan metropolitan area (WHM) were extracted based on land survey data to carry out multifunctional evaluation of NGFs, including production function, ecological functions and recreational function. Second, the SOM+K-means algorithm is used to identify and explore the multifunctional bundle characteristics of NGFs to determine the regulation priority order of NGFs. Finally, a multiscenario simulation of the rigid control scale and layout arrangement of NGFs from the grain security perspective is carried out. The research results show that (1) there are 1294.34 thousand ha of NGFs in the WHM, mainly of grain and non-grain rotation type (52.36 %). The production function is higher in the central and western Jianghan Plain areas than in the northeastern and southern hilly mountainous areas; the ecological functions are the opposite; the high-value areas of recreational function are mainly located around the built-up areas of the city. (2) Multifunctional bundles divide NGFs into seven categories and determine the order of regulation based on the principle of "production priority, functional diversity". (3) By setting different grain security scenarios, it is predicted that the rigid control scale of NGFs in the WHM in 2030 is 256.08–797.55 thousand ha. Divide and restore grain production in order of the priority zone for grain production, the reserve zone for grain production, the resilience zone for grain production, the ecological improvement zone and the agricultural improvement zone, so as to achieve a regulatory layout of strict control and adaptable regulation of NGFs. The research supports the regulation of NGFs in balancing grain security and ecological stability to promote sustainable agricultural production.

中文翻译：

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粮食安全视角下非粮农用地多功能评价与多情景调控——来自武汉都市圈的证据


非粮生产是由农业发展、民生保障、生态保护等一系列利益驱动的复杂社会现象。它显着改变农业生产结构和植被覆盖，影响区域粮食供给和农业多功能构成。为了实现与粮食供应和生态稳定相关的可持续发展目标，本研究提出了非粮农田多功能评价和多情景调控的研究框架。首先，基于土地调查数据提取武汉都市圈NGF，对NGF进行多功能评价，包括生产功能、生态功能和游憩功能。其次，采用SOM+K-means算法识别和探索NGF的多功能束特征，以确定NGF的调控优先顺序。最后，从粮食安全角度对NGF的刚性控制规模和布局安排进行了多场景模拟。研究结果表明：（1）全区NGF面积129.434万公顷，主要为粮轮作和非轮作型（52.36%）。江汉平原中西部地区生产函数高于东北和南部丘陵山区；生态功能相反；休闲功能高价值区主要分布在城市建成区周边。 （2）多功能束将NGF分为七类，并按照“生产优先、功能多样性”的原则确定调控顺序。 （3）通过设置不同的粮食安全情景，预测2030年WHM中NGF的刚性控制规模为256.08-797.55千公顷。按照粮食生产优先区、粮食生产储备区、粮食生产韧性区、生态改良区、农业改良区的顺序划分恢复粮食生产，实现严控、严控的调控布局。 NGF 的适应性调节。该研究支持NGFs的调节以平衡粮食安全和生态稳定，以促进可持续农业生产。