Shifts in phenology with climate change can lead to asynchrony between interacting species, with cascading impacts on ecosystem services. Previous meta-analyses have produced conflicting results on whether asynchrony has increased in recent decades, but the underlying data have also varied—including in species composition, interaction types and whether studies compared data grouped by trophic level or compared shifts in known interacting species pairs. Here, using updated data from previous studies and a Bayesian phylogenetic model, we found that species have advanced an average of 3.1 days per decade across 1,279 time series across 29 taxonomic classes. We found no evidence that shifts vary by trophic level: shifts were similar when grouped by trophic level, and for species pairs when grouped by their type of interaction—either as paired species known to interact or as randomly paired species. Phenology varied with phylogeny (λ = 0.4), suggesting that uneven sampling of species may affect estimates of phenology and potentially phenological shifts. These results could aid forecasting for well-sampled groups but suggest that climate change has not yet led to widespread increases in phenological asynchrony across interacting species, although substantial biases in current data make forecasting for most groups difficult.

物候的变化与气候变化可能导致相互作用的物种之间的异步，从而对生态系统服务产生级联影响。以前的荟萃分析在近几十年来是否增加了异步性方面产生了相互矛盾的结果，但基础数据也各不相同——包括物种组成、相互作用类型以及研究是否比较了按营养级分组的数据或比较了已知相互作用物种对的变化。在这里，使用先前研究的更新数据和贝叶斯系统发育模型，我们发现物种在 29 个分类类别的 1,279 个时间序列中平均每十年提前 3.1 天。我们没有发现任何证据表明变化会因营养级而异：按营养级分组时，变化是相似的，而物种对按其相互作用类型分组时是相似的——要么是已知相互作用的成对物种，要么是随机配对的物种。物候随系统发育而变化 （λ = 0.4），表明物种采样不均匀可能会影响物候的估计和潜在的物候变化。这些结果可能有助于预测样本充足的类群，但表明气候变化尚未导致相互作用物种之间物候不同步性的广泛增加，尽管当前数据中的重大偏差使得大多数类群的预测变得困难。