Background To assess predictive value of short-term choroidal changes for future myopic shift in children. Methods 577 eyes of 289 primary school children were prospectively followed for 2 years. Cycloplegic refractions at baseline, 1 year and 2 years, and choroidal measurements by optical coherence tomography at baseline and 3 months, were used for analyses. Myopic shift was defined as refraction change of at least −0.50 dioptre/year, at 2 years compared with baseline. Results 228 participants (455 eyes) completed 2-year follow-up. Approximately 37.6% of 311 initially non-myopic eyes and 73.6% of 144 initially myopic eyes developed a myopic shift. Notably, at 3 months greater reductions were found in initially myopic eyes with myopic shift, than in those without myopic shift—in choroidal thickness (ChT), luminal area (LA), stromal area (SA) and total choroidal area (TCA), but no significant differences in any choroidal parameters were observed between non-myopic eyes, with and without myopic shift. Multivariable analyses showed that in myopic eyes, each percentage increase in ChT, LA, SA and TCA was associated with reduced odds of myopic shift (all p<0.001). Similar associations were observed in non-myopic eyes, with smaller effects than in myopic eyes. Adding a 3-month percentage change of each choroidal parameter to a basic model including age, gender, parental myopia and baseline refraction significantly improved the predictive performance in myopic eyes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves increasing from 0.650 to approximately 0.800, all p<0.05), but not in non-myopic eyes. Conclusion Short-term choroidal changes could act as early indicators for future myopic shift in children. Data are available upon reasonable request. Data are available upon reasonable request from the corresponding author at zxt@mail.eye.ac.cn.

中文翻译：

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短期脉络膜变化作为小学生未来近视转变的早期指标：两年队列研究的结果


背景 评估短期脉络膜变化对儿童未来近视转变的预测价值。方法对289名小学生577只眼进行为期2年的前瞻性随访。使用基线、1 年和 2 年时的散瞳验光以及基线和 3 个月时通过光学相干断层扫描进行的脉络膜测量进行分析。近视变化定义为与基线相比，2 年时屈光度变化至少为 -0.50 屈光度/年。结果 228 名参与者（455 只眼睛）完成了 2 年随访。在 311 只最初非近视眼中，约 37.6% 的眼睛和 144 只最初近视眼中的 73.6% 发生了近视转变。值得注意的是，在 3 个月时，与没有近视移位的最初近视眼相比，在最初近视的眼睛中发现脉络膜厚度 (ChT)、管腔面积 (LA)、基质面积 (SA) 和总脉络膜面积 (TC​​A) 的减少幅度更大。但在有或没有近视移位的非近视眼之间，没有观察到任何脉络膜参数的显着差异。多变量分析表明，在近视眼中，ChT、LA、SA 和 TCA 的每个百分比增加都与近视转变几率的降低相关（全部 p<0.001）。在非近视眼中也观察到了类似的关联，但其影响比近视眼小。将每个脉络膜参数的 3 个月百分比变化添加到基本模型中，包括年龄、性别、父母近视和基线屈光，显着提高了近视眼的预测性能（接收器操作特征曲线下面积从 0.650 增加到大约 0.800，所有 p <0.05)，但不适用于非近视眼。结论 短期脉络膜变化可以作为儿童未来近视转变的早期指标。数据可根据合理要求提供。 数据可根据通讯作者的合理要求提供，邮箱为zxt@mail.eye.ac.cn。