Long-term ice phenology records quantify the effects of climate change on Northern Hemisphere lakes. This study uses lake ice phenological records across a gradient of lake sizes (0.1–31,967.8 km² in lake surface area) obtained from community science networks. We compiled in situ ice phenological records for 2,499 lakes across 15 countries for an average of 30 years. These data revealed that for the last 50 years (1971–2020), the annual mean duration of lake ice cover decreased at a rate of 9 days per decade, with a regime shift in lake ice phenology in the late 1980s. We projected that at the end of the century (2070–2099), ice duration will decrease by an average of 10 days when compared to the historical time period (1971–2000) for the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 climate scenario (SSP126), 23 days for SSP370, and 28 days for the SSP585. Impending human development can enhance or attenuate lake ice loss, as adaptation strategies can accelerate fossil fuel use, result in conflict, or seek strategies apart from fossil fuel development. These future pathways have critical implications for the future preservation of lake ice cover.

中文翻译：

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北半球湖冰覆盖的物候变化：湖冰物候学的过去、现在和未来一瞥


长期冰物候记录量化了气候变化对北半球湖泊的影响。本研究使用从社区科学网络获得的不同湖泊大小梯度（湖泊表面积为 0.1–31,967.8 km ² ）的湖冰物候记录。我们编制了 15 个国家 2,499 个湖泊平均 30 年的原位冰物候记录。这些数据显示，在过去 50 年（1971-2020）中，湖泊冰盖的年平均持续时间以每十年 9 天的速度减少，湖泊冰物候的状况在 20 世纪 80 年代末发生了转变。我们预计，在共享社会经济路径（SSP）1-2.6气候情景下，到本世纪末（2070-2099年），冰冻持续时间将比历史时期（1971-2000年）平均减少10天(SSP126)、SSP370 为 23 天、SSP585 为 28 天。即将到来的人类发展可能会加剧或减轻湖冰损失，因为适应战略可能会加速化石燃料的使用，导致冲突，或寻求化石燃料开发之外的战略。这些未来的路径对未来湖泊冰盖的保护具有重要影响。