npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2024-09-02 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00735-w Xiyue Zhang , Clara Deser
Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed from approximately 1949–1978 and cooled slightly from 1979–2013. We compare the remote impacts of these SO trends using historical coupled model experiments in which the model’s SO SST anomalies are nudged to observations. Compared to the control (no nudging) ensemble, the nudged ensemble shows enhanced SST warming in the tropical southeast Pacific and Atlantic, and greater Antarctic sea ice loss, during the SO warming period: analogous to the impacts of SO cooling but of opposite sign. The SO-driven response in the tropical Pacific (Atlantic) is statistically significant when considering the trend difference between the two periods, and accounts for 34% (59%) of the observed non-radiatively forced trend. Surface heat budget analysis indicates wind-evaporation-SST feedback dominates over shortwave cloud feedback in amplifying the SO-driven SST trends in the tropics during the SO warming period, opposite to that for the SO cooling period.
中文翻译:
自 1949 年以来观测到的南大洋变暖和变冷趋势对热带和南极海冰的影响
南大洋 (SO) 海面温度 (SST) 大约从 1949 年至 1978 年变暖,从 1979 年至 2013 年略有下降。我们使用历史耦合模型实验来比较这些 SO 趋势的远程影响,其中模型的 SO SST 异常被推到观测值。与对照(无微推)集合相比,微推集合显示,在 SO 变暖期间,热带东南太平洋和大西洋的海温变暖增强,南极海冰损失更大:与 SO 变冷的影响类似,但符号相反。当考虑两个时期之间的趋势差异时,热带太平洋(大西洋)SO 驱动的响应具有统计显着性,占观测到的非辐射强迫趋势的 34% (59%)。地表热收支分析表明,在SO变暖期间,风蒸发-海表温度反馈比短波云反馈占主导地位,放大了热带地区SO驱动的海表温度趋势,这与SO冷却期间相反。