In the novel paradigm of the circular economy the value of products, materials, and resources is retained in the economy for as long as possible, thereby minimizing waste generation. In this context, the olive oil producing countries are presented with a new opportunity that lies in the large amount of by-products generated by the olive oil industry, in particular olive pomace. Among the existing options for valorizing it, gasification is a technically proven and economically viable process, especially for moderately high energy prices. This research aims to analyze the profitability of olive pomace gasification, identifying the main uncertainty factors that determine said profitability. To that end, sensitivity analyses and probabilistic scenario analyses using the Monte Carlo method are conducted for the first time in this research context. The results show a positive profit margin of €19.27 per ton of milled olives, a Net Present Value (NPV) of €453,067, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 9.7 %. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the electricity price is the main determinant of profitability, while other factors, such as the biomass price or the sale of by-products (biochar), are less important. The Monte Carlo analysis reveals the uncertainty involved in these types of projects, showing that the probability of the investment being profitable (NPV>0) is only 25.1 %. The assessment evidences that this kind of projects presents high capital needs and strongly uncertain profitability, recommending the implementation of public and private green finance instruments to overcome high-capital barriers and de-risk these investments.

中文翻译：

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橄榄油行业的循环生物经济：橄榄厂副产品气化的确定性和概率盈利能力


在循环经济的新范式中，产品、材料和资源的价值尽可能长时间地保留在经济中，从而最大限度地减少废物的产生。在此背景下，橄榄油生产国面临着新的机遇，即橄榄油工业产生的大量副产品，特别是橄榄果渣。在现有的评估其价值的选项中，气化是一种技术上经过验证且经济上可行的工艺，特别是对于适度高的能源价格。本研究旨在分析橄榄果渣气化的盈利能力，确定决定所述盈利能力的主要不确定因素。为此，在本研究背景下首次使用蒙特卡罗方法进行敏感性分析和概率情景分析。结果显示，每吨碾磨橄榄的正利润率为 19.27 欧元，净现值 (NPV) 为 453,067 欧元，内部回报率 (IRR) 为 9.7%。敏感性分析表明，电价是盈利能力的主要决定因素，而其他因素，例如生物质价格或副产品（生物炭）的销售，则不太重要。蒙特卡罗分析揭示了此类项目所涉及的不确定性，表明投资盈利的概率 (NPV>0) 仅 25.1%。评估表明，此类项目存在较高的资本需求和很强的盈利不确定性，建议实施公共和私人绿色金融工具，以克服高资本障碍并降低这些投资的风险。