This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.

中文翻译：

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生育率对短期经济压力的反应：转型前定居者殖民地的价格波动和财富冲击


本文研究了开普殖民地转型前农村社会中总体价格波动和负面财富冲击所带来的短期经济压力对短期生育行为的影响。首先，我们将南非家庭数据库中定居妇女的完整出生史与消费者价格指数数据联系起来，以研究价格波动对受孕的影响。接下来，我们将相同的出生史与奴隶主和奴隶解放数据联系起来，以研究负财富冲击对受孕的影响。 1834年奴隶解放后，前奴隶主平均仅获得奴隶市场价值的40%至50%作为补偿，导致他们的财富大幅减少。依靠同时考虑停止和间隔的事件历史模型，我们没有找到强有力的证据支持针对总体价格波动进行生育控制。我们确实发现，在解放期间和解放后不久，前奴隶主家庭的生育间隔长度存在更大的差异，这表明在这种情况下，负财富冲击与通过推迟而增加的生育限制有关。