This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.

中文翻译：

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生育率对短期经济压力的反应：过渡前定居者聚居地的价格波动和财富冲击


本文研究了短期经济压力的影响，这些压力由一般价格波动和负面财富冲击所体现，对开普殖民地农村过渡前社会的短期生育行为的影响。首先，我们将南非家庭数据库中定居妇女的完整出生史与消费者价格指数数据联系起来，以研究价格波动对受孕的影响。接下来，我们将相同的出生历史与奴隶主和奴隶解放数据联系起来，以研究负面财富冲击对受孕的影响。1834 年奴隶解放后，前奴隶主平均只得到奴隶市场价值的 40% 到 50% 作为补偿，导致他们的财富大幅减少。依靠同时关注停止和间隔的事件历史模型，我们没有找到强有力的证据来支持生育控制以应对一般价格波动。我们确实发现，前奴隶制家庭在解放期间和解放后立即的出生间隔长度差异更大，这表明在这种情况下，负面财富冲击与推迟导致生育率限制增加有关。