Mixed farming systems play a crucial role in Australian agriculture, offering economic, social, and environmental advantages. However, these systems are vulnerable to climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability. We utilized the pre-calibrated AusFarm model, forced with daily climate data downscaled from 27 Global Climate Models, to simulate how climate change would affect mixed-farming systems at two sites, Condobolin and Wagga Wagga located in southeastern Australia. The results indicated that climate change had diverse effects on crop yields. The simulated yield for some crops, such as canola, was projected to decrease, while others, like field peas, were expected to increase. Elevated atmospheric CO levels were anticipated to boost pasture production, but the overall outcome would depend on how these changes interact with rising temperatures and changed rainfall patterns. The increase in pastures was associated with higher live sheep weights and increased fleece growth, with a more significant impact observed at the drier Condobolin site. Furthermore, we found that the gross margin was projected to rise at both sites, with Condobolin experiencing more variability under the influence of climate change. These modelling findings highlight the capacity of mixed-farming systems, which integrate both crops and livestock, to uphold or even improve farm profitability in the context of impending climate change. This underscores the crucial significance of mixed-farming systems in southeastern Australia.

中文翻译：

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模拟未来气候变化对澳大利亚东南部混合农业系统的影响


混合农业系统在澳大利亚农业中发挥着至关重要的作用，提供经济、社会和环境优势。然而，这些系统很容易受到气候变化的影响，其特点是气温上升和降雨量变化增加。我们利用预先校准的 AusFarm 模型（强制使用从 27 个全球气候模型缩小的每日气候数据）来模拟气候变化将如何影响位于澳大利亚东南部的 Condobolin 和 Wagga Wagga 两个地点的混合农业系统。结果表明，气候变化对农作物产量有多种影响。一些作物（例如油菜籽）的模拟产量预计会下降，而其他作物（例如豌豆）的模拟产量预计会增加。大气中二氧化碳水平升高预计将提高牧场产量，但总体结果将取决于这些变化如何与气温上升和降雨模式变化相互作用。牧场的增加与活羊重量的增加和羊毛生长的增加有关，在干燥的 Condobolin 地点观察到的影响更为显着。此外，我们发现两个地点的毛利率预计都会上升，其中 Condobolin 在气候变化的影响下经历了更大的波动。这些模型结果凸显了混合农业系统（将农作物和牲畜结合起来）在即将发生的气候变化背景下维持甚至提高农场盈利能力的能力。这凸显了澳大利亚东南部混合农业系统的至关重要性。