Despite their significance, life-course dynamics are rarely considered as consequences of social movements. We address this shortcoming by investigating the relationship between protest and marriage formation in Ethiopia. Building on scholarship in social movements and insights from family demography, we argue that exposure to protest delays marriage formation. To test our theoretical arguments, we created an original panel dataset using georeferenced data from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. We combined the marriage histories of 4,398 young women with fine-grained measures of exposure to local protests that we compiled from two conflict datasets covering events between 2002 and 2016. Using discrete-time event history analyses, we find that protest delays first-marriage formation. Additional analyses suggest that political uncertainty and disruptions in interethnic marriages cannot explain this effect. Instead, we provide tentative evidence that protest delays marriage formation by preoccupying large segments of the marriageable population, rendering them unavailable for this critical life-course transition. Our findings pave the way for scholarship on the demographic outcomes of protest and contribute to understanding marriage patterns in a country where the timing of marriage has far-reaching social consequences.

中文翻译：

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社会运动的人口影响：埃塞俄比亚当地抗议活动推迟了婚姻的形成


尽管生命历程动态很重要，但很少被视为社会运动的结果。我们通过调查埃塞俄比亚的抗议与婚姻形成之间的关系来解决这一缺点。基于社会运动的学术研究和家庭人口学的见解，我们认为接触抗议会延迟婚姻的形成。为了检验我们的理论论点，我们使用 2016 年埃塞俄比亚人口和健康调查的地理参考数据创建了一个原始面板数据集。我们将 4,398 名年轻女性的婚姻史与我们根据涵盖 2002 年至 2016 年间事件的两个冲突数据集汇编的当地抗议活动暴露程度的细粒度测量相结合。使用离散时间事件历史分析，我们发现抗议延迟了初婚的形成。其他分析表明，政治不确定性和种族间婚姻的破坏无法解释这种影响。相反，我们提供了初步证据，表明抗议活动占据了大部分适婚人群，使他们无法参加这一关键的生命历程过渡，从而延迟了婚姻的形成。我们的研究结果为研究抗议的人口结果铺平了道路，并有助于理解一个结婚时间具有深远社会影响的国家的婚姻模式。