The scholarship on migration and climate change has been rapidly developed over recent decades, moving away from apocalyptic predictions of mass displacement toward more nuanced modeling of the complex relationships between climate change and migration. Unfortunately, much of that development has happened in parallel to the core of migration studies and thus our prevailing migration theories do not reflect these emerging studies of climate and migration. Our objectives for this article are to describe the general theoretical assertions made in the climate change-migration literature and propose a theoretical framework for guiding empirical investigations into the ways that climate change drives human migration, identifying the mediating variables that more directly shape migration and integrating multiple levels of analyses. We provide an example of how our theoretical framework can be used to design an analytic strategy and conclude by suggesting how future research can use this conceptual model to move toward a cohesive theory of climate-related migration and resulting policy responses.

中文翻译：

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绘制移民和气候变化科学的未来


近几十年来，关于移民和气候变化的学术研究迅速发展，从大规模流离失所的世界末日预测转向对气候变化和移民之间复杂关系进行更细致的建模。不幸的是，大部分发展都是与移民研究的核心同时发生的，因此我们流行的移民理论并没有反映这些新兴的气候和移民研究。我们本文的目标是描述气候变化-移民文献中提出的一般理论主张，并提出一个理论框架，用于指导对气候变化驱动人类移民方式的实证研究，确定更直接影响移民和整合的中介变量。多层次的分析。我们提供了一个例子，说明如何使用我们的理论框架来设计分析策略，并通过建议未来的研究如何使用这一概念模型来走向与气候相关的移民和由此产生的政策反应的凝聚力理论。