Contrary to historical episodes, the 2022–2023 tightening of US monetary policy has not yet triggered financial crisis in emerging markets. Why is this time different? To answer this question, we analyze the current situation through the lens of historical evidence. In emerging markets, the financial channel–based transmission of US policy historically led to more adverse outcomes compared to advanced economies, where the trade channel fails to smooth out these negative effects. When the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, global investors tend to shed risky assets in response to the tightening global financial conditions, affecting emerging markets more severely due to their lower credit ratings and higher risk profiles. This time around, the escape from emerging market assets and the increase in risk spreads have been limited. We document that the historical experience of higher risk spreads and capital outflows can be largely explained by the lack of credible monetary policies and dollar-denominated debt. The improvement in monetary policy frameworks combined with reduced levels of dollar-denominated debt have helped emerging markets weather the recent Federal Reserve hikes.

与历史情况相反，2022-2023年美国货币政策收紧尚未引发新兴市场金融危机。为什么这次不同？为了回答这个问题，我们从历史证据的角度来分析当前的情况。在新兴市场，与发达经济体相比，美国政策基于金融渠道的传导历史上会导致更不利的结果，而发达经济体的贸易渠道无法消除这些负面影响。当美联储加息时，全球金融状况趋紧，全球投资者往往会抛售风险资产，由于信用评级较低和风险状况较高，对新兴市场的影响更为严重。这一次，新兴市场资产的逃离和风险利差的上升幅度有限。我们记录了风险利差较高和资本外流的历史经验，很大程度上可以用缺乏可信的货币政策和以美元计价的债务来解释。货币政策框架的改善加上美元计价债务水平的降低，帮助新兴市场度过了近期美联储加息的难关。