The wisdom of the crowd is the finding that aggregating the judgments of many people can lead to surprisingly accurate group judgments. Usually statistical methods are used to aggregate people’s judgments, but there are advantages to using cognitive models instead. Crowd judgments based on cognitive modeling can (a) identify experts and amplify their judgments, (b) provide a representational structure for aggregating complicated multidimensional judgments, (c) debias judgments that are affected by heuristic cognitive processes or competitive social situations, and (d) diversify the crowd by incorporating predictions about judgments that have not been observed. Demonstrations of these advantages are provided in case studies involving ranking, probability estimation, and categorization problems.

中文翻译：

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利用认知模型提高人群的智慧


群体的智慧在于发现，汇总许多人的判断可以得出令人惊讶的准确群体判断。通常使用统计方法来汇总人们的判断，但使用认知模型具有优势。基于认知模型的群体判断可以（a）识别专家并放大他们的判断，（b）为聚合复杂的多维判断提供表征结构，（c）消除受启发式认知过程或竞争性社会情境影响的偏见判断，以及（d） ）通过纳入对尚未观察到的判断的预测来使人群多样化。这些优势在涉及排名、概率估计和分类问题的案例研究中得到了证明。