Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change,Global Change Biology

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Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-27 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17471
Jacqueline Souza Lima _{1,

2,

3} , Jonathan Lenoir ₄ , Kristoffer Hylander _{1,

2}

Affiliation

Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio‐economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50‐m resolution across Sweden (55–68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading‐edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north‐west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high‐resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change.

中文翻译：

未来气候变化下阔叶树跨退缩北方生物群落的潜在迁移路径

气候变化引发了包括树种在内的各种分类群的分布向极地扩张。鉴于树木作为森林关键物种的生态意义及其社会经济重要性，预测树种的未来潜在分布对于为未来森林生态系统的生物量生产和生物多样性保护制定有效的适应策略至关重要。在这里，我们在瑞典（北纬55-68°）范围内安装了分辨率为50米的地理信息栖息地适宜性模型（HSM），以估计在不同的未来气候变化下欧洲前沿分布范围内七种阔叶树种的潜在向北扩张场景和不同时间段。总的来说，我们观察到最低温度是理解阔叶树种在寒冷极限下的空间分布的最关键变量。我们的 HSM 预测了 2100 年复杂的范围扩张模式，物种之间存在个体差异。然而，一种常见且相当令人惊讶的模式是沿着东海岸向北扩张，然后沿着较大的山谷狭窄的迁徙路径向西北地区的土壤适宜地区迁移，预计大多数研究物种都会在那里扩张。本研究生成的高分辨率地图为我们理解南方树种扩张到后退的北方生物群落时前沿的范围变化动态提供了宝贵的见解。这些地图表明阔叶树种已经可以转移的区域，以预测面对未来气候变化的森林和生物多样性保护适应工作。

更新日期：2024-08-27

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