OBJECTIVE Native Americans are vastly overrepresented in U.S. jails and people in rural communities face unique barriers (e.g., limited public transportation and services) that may impact how well pretrial risk assessments predict outcomes. Yet, these populations are understudied in the literature examining the predictive validity and, more importantly, the potential predictive bias of pretrial risk assessments. We sought to address these gaps. HYPOTHESES We had three aims: (a) examine the validity of Public Safety Assessment (PSA) scores in predicting pretrial outcomes in a county with a high degree of rurality, (b) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among Native American and White people, and (c) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among men and women. METHOD Our sample comprised 4,570 closed cases involving people released on personal recognizance bonds over a 3.5-year period. About two thirds were Native American and men. The PSA was completed and outcome data were collected as part of routine pretrial practice. RESULTS In slightly more than one third of cases, people failed to appear or were rearrested during the pretrial period. In the full sample, PSA scores demonstrated poor validity in predicting failure to appear but fair validity in predicting new arrest. Further analyses revealed predictive bias as a function of both race and sex in the prediction of failure to appear. In contrast, we did not find evidence of bias in the prediction of new criminal arrest, although predictive validity was slightly better for White people and men. CONCLUSION Our findings raise concerns regarding the use of PSA scores to inform pretrial decisions related to risk for failure to appear in rural communities and among Native American people. They also highlight concerns regarding reliance on static factors as well as the need for research on the validity of pretrial risk assessments in these populations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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审前风险评估中的预测偏差：公共安全评估在美洲原住民群体中的应用。


目标 美国原住民在美国监狱中的比例严重过高，而农村社区的人们面临着独特的障碍（例如，有限的公共交通和服务），这可能会影响审前风险评估对结果的预测效果。然而，文献中对这些人群的研究不足，检查了预测的有效性，更重要的是，检查了审前风险评估的潜在预测偏差。我们试图弥补这些差距。假设我们有三个目标：(a) 检查公共安全评估 (PSA) 分数在预测农村化程度较高的县的审前结果方面的有效性，(b) 比较美洲原住民和白人的预测有效性并测试预测偏差人，以及（c）比较预测有效性并测试男性和女性之间的预测偏差。方法 我们的样本包括 4,570 起已结案案件，涉及 3.5 年内因个人担保债券获释的人员。大约三分之二是美洲原住民和男性。作为常规审前实践的一部分，完成了 PSA 并收集了结果数据。结果 在略多于三分之一的案件中，人们在预审期间未能出庭或再次被捕。在完整样本中，PSA 分数在预测不出庭方面的有效性较差，但在预测新逮捕方面的有效性相当。进一步的分析表明，在预测未能出庭时，预测偏差是种族和性别的函数。相比之下，我们没有发现新的刑事逮捕预测存在偏见的证据，尽管白人和男性的预测有效性稍好一些。 结论 我们的研究结果引起了人们对使用 PSA 评分来告知与农村社区和美洲原住民未出庭风险相关的审前决策的担忧。他们还强调了对静态因素依赖的担忧以及对这些人群的审前风险评估有效性进行研究的必要性。 （PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。