BACKGROUND Although environmental determinants play an important role in suicide mortality, the quantitative influence of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths remains relatively underexamined. OBJECTIVE The objective is to quantify the impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia from 2000 to 2019. METHODS A time series regression analysis using a generalised additive model was employed to explore the potentially non-linear relationship between temperature anomalies and suicide, incorporating structural variables such as sex, age, season and geographic region. Suicide deaths data were obtained from the Australian National Mortality Database, and gridded climate data of gridded surface temperatures were sourced from the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset. FINDINGS Heat anomalies in the study period were between 0.02°C and 2.2°C hotter than the historical period due to climate change. Our analysis revealed that approximately 0.5% (264 suicides, 95% CI 257 to 271) of the total 50 733 suicides within the study period were attributable to climate change-induced heat anomalies. Death counts associated with heat anomalies were statistically significant (p value 0.03) among men aged 55+ years old. Seasonality was a significant factor, with increased deaths during spring and summer. The relationship between high heat anomalies and suicide deaths varied across different demographic segments. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS This study highlights the measurable impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia, emphasising the need for increased climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in public health planning and suicide prevention efforts focusing on older adult men. The findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in addition to individual-level factors in understanding and reducing suicide mortality.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚与气候变化引起的高温异常相关的自杀死亡：时间序列回归分析。


背景虽然环境决定因素在自杀死亡率中发挥着重要作用，但气候变化引起的高温异常对自杀死亡的定量影响仍然相对不足。目的 量化 2000 年至 2019 年气候变化引起的高温异常对澳大利亚自杀死亡的影响。方法采用广义加性模型进行时间序列回归分析，探讨温度异常与自杀死亡之间的潜在非线性关系。自杀，纳入了性别、年龄、季节和地理区域等结构变量。自杀死亡数据来自澳大利亚国家死亡率数据库，网格地表温度的网格气候数据来自澳大利亚网格气候数据集。调查结果 由于气候变化，研究期间的热异常比历史时期高 0.02°C 至 2.2°C。我们的分析显示，研究期间总共 50 733 起自杀事件中，约有 0.5%（264 起自杀，95% CI 257 至 271）是由气候变化引起的高温异常造成的。在 55 岁以上男性中，与热异常相关的死亡人数具有统计学意义（p 值 0.03）。季节性是一个重要因素，春季和夏季死亡人数增加。高温异常与自杀死亡之间的关系在不同的人口群体中有所不同。结论和意义 这项研究强调了气候变化引起的高温异常对澳大利亚自杀死亡的可衡量影响，强调在公共卫生规划和以老年男性为重点的自杀预防工作中需要增加气候变化缓解和适应策略。 研究结果强调了在了解和降低自杀死亡率方面除了个人因素之外还考虑环境因素的重要性。