Climate change and forest management are recognized as pivotal factors influencing forest ecosystem services and thus multifunctionality. However, the magnitude and the relative importance of climate change and forest management effects on the multifunctionality remain unclear, especially for natural mixed forests. In this study, our objective is to address this gap by utilizing simulations of climate-sensitive transition matrix growth models based on national forest inventory plot data. We evaluated the effects of seven management scenarios (combinations of various cutting methods and intensities) on the future provision of ecosystem services and multifunctionality in mixed conifer-broad-leaved forests in northeastern China, under four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, and constant climate). Provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services were described by timber production, carbon storage, carbon sequestration, tree species diversity, deadwood volume, and the number of large living trees. Our findings indicated that timber production was significantly influenced by management scenarios, while tree species diversity, deadwood volume, and large living trees were impacted by both climate and management separately. Carbon storage and sequestration were notably influenced by both management and the interaction of climate and management. These findings emphasized the profound impact of forest management on ecosystem services, outweighing that of climate scenarios alone. We found no single management scenario maximized all six ecosystem service indicators. The upper story thinning by 5% intensity with 5-year interval (UST5) management strategy emerged with the highest multifunctionality, surpassing the lowest values by more than 20% across all climate scenarios. In conclusion, our results underlined the potential of climate-sensitive transition matrix growth models as a decision support tool and provided recommendations for long-term strategies for multifunctional forest management under future climate change context. Ecosystem services and multifunctionality of forests could be enhanced by implementing appropriate management measures amidst a changing climate.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下针阔混交林生态系统服务多功能性及基于矩阵生长模型的森林管理


气候变化和森林管理被认为是影响森林生态系统服务的关键因素，因此是影响多功能性的关键因素。然而，气候变化和森林管理对多功能性的影响的幅度和相对重要性仍不清楚，尤其是对于天然混交林。在这项研究中，我们的目标是通过利用基于国家森林清查图数据的气候敏感型过渡矩阵增长模型的模拟来解决这一差距。本研究评估了 4 种气候情景 （SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5 和恒定气候） 下 7 种管理情景 （各种砍伐方式和强度的组合） 对东北针阔混交林未来生态系统服务和多功能性提供的影响。木材生产、碳储存、碳封存、树种多样性、枯木体积和大型活树的数量描述了供应、监管、文化和支持服务。我们的研究结果表明，木材生产受到管理情景的显著影响，而树种多样性、枯木体积和大型活树分别受到气候和管理的影响。碳储存和封存受到管理以及气候和管理相互作用的显著影响。这些发现强调了森林管理对生态系统服务的深远影响，超过了单独的气候情景。我们发现，没有一个单一的管理情景可以最大化所有六个生态系统服务指标。 上层强度减薄 5% 强度和 5 年间隔 （UST5） 管理策略具有最高的多功能性，在所有气候情景中超过最低值 20% 以上。总之，我们的结果强调了气候敏感型转型矩阵增长模型作为决策支持工具的潜力，并为未来气候变化背景下多功能森林管理的长期战略提供了建议。在不断变化的气候中，通过实施适当的管理措施，可以加强生态系统服务和森林的多功能性。