After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the Japanese government reconstructed coastal protection facilities to mitigate extreme disasters and coastal erosion. However, the substantial compression of coastal zones poses a challenge in coping with sea level rise, while maintaining a sustainable coastal ecosystem. To clarify the impact of environmental factors and sea level rise on coastal ecosystems in highly developed regions, this study integrated field surveys, geo-detector analysis, and coastal inundation models into the research framework. It explored the relationship between environmental factors and vegetation patterns and predicted the inundation areas and vegetation survivorship of 12 transects in the study area from 2030 to 2150. The results indicated that the distance from the tide embankment (DTE) and elevation (DEM) were the main driving factors, and the combination of the potential of hydrogen (pH) and DTE had a major impact on vegetation coverage. Notably, the distribution of vegetation was positively correlated with the width of the coastal zone, and when the width was less than 60 m, vegetation could not survive. With sea level rise, almost no vegetation will survive until 2150. Appropriate coastal width and height are conducive to maintaining the sustainability of coastal ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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海平面上升对已建造潮汐堤坝的沿海地区的影响预测


2011 年东日本大地震后，日本政府重建了海岸保护设施，以减轻极端灾害和海岸侵蚀。然而，沿海地区的大量压缩对应对海平面上升，同时维持可持续的沿海生态系统构成了挑战。为了阐明环境因素和海平面上升对高度发达地区沿海生态系统的影响，本研究将实地调查、地理探测器分析和沿海洪水泛滥模型整合到研究框架中。本文探讨了环境因子与植被格局的关系，预测了 2030—2150 年研究区 12 个样带的淹没面积和植被存活率。结果表明，距潮堤的距离 （DTE） 和高程 （DEM） 是主要驱动因素，氢 （pH） 和 DTE 的潜力组合对植被覆盖度有重大影响。值得注意的是，植被分布与海岸带的宽度呈正相关，当宽度小于 60 m 时，植被无法生存。随着海平面上升，几乎没有植被能够存活到 2150 年。适当的海岸宽度和高度有利于维持海岸带生态系统的可持续性。