Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.

春季中亚降水（SCAP）对当地农业和生态系统具有重大影响，其变化主要受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）影响。 ENSO-SCAP 关系经历了明显的年代际转变，但其机制仍然难以捉摸。根据观测和气候模型模拟，这些变化可能是由 ENSO 引起的经向环流和北大西洋 (NA) 海面温度 (SST) 异常引发的罗斯贝波列转变造成的。在高（低）相关期，ENSO 在中亚地区引起强（弱）垂直运动异常，而 NA 海温异常则在太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的调节下发挥弱（强）抵消作用。在PDO的正（负）阶段，缓慢（快速）衰减的ENSO会在ENSO后春季触发强（弱）NA马蹄形海温异常，影响ENSO-SCAP关系。我们的研究确定了自 2000 年代以来 ENSO-SCAP 关系的加强趋势，表明近几十年来 SCAP 的可预测性有所提高。