We present an analytical formula to definitively restrict the orbit prediction error. In low earth orbit, millions of pieces of space debris are below 10 cm in size. One promising active debris removal (ADR) method for “lethal nontrackable (LNT)” objects is laser-based method. The recoil of laser ablation changes the orbit of the debris object. The laser must be precisely focused on the surface of the debris object. Because the relative speed of a debris object can reach 15 km/s, accurate orbit prediction is required. Our formula ensures that the laser is focused on the debris surface at the correct time and direction. We also evaluate the parameters in the formula, achieving an orbit prediction error of less than 1 cm 10 s after detecting a debris object. This formula can be used to design a specific laser ADR system for LNT.

中文翻译：

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激光碎片清除轨道预测误差的明确限制


我们提出了一个分析公式来明确限制轨道预测误差。在近地轨道上，有数百万块尺寸小于 10 厘米的空间碎片。针对“致命的不可追踪（LNT）”物体的一种有前途的主动碎片清除（ADR）方法是基于激光的方法。激光烧蚀的反冲改变了碎片物体的轨道。激光必须精确聚焦在碎片物体的表面。由于碎片物体的相对速度可达15公里/秒，因此需要精确的轨道预测。我们的公式确保激光在正确的时间和方向聚焦在碎片表面。我们还对公式中的参数进行了评估，实现了检测到碎片物体后轨道预测误差小于1 cm 10 s。该公式可用于设计针对 LNT 的特定激光 ADR 系统。