This paper aims to investigate whether fuel retailers strategically increased prices following a subsidy intended to cover a mandatory discount and to assess its impact on transmission to consumers. Introduced by the Spanish government in April 2022 to counter soaring fuel prices resulting from the Ukraine conflict, the impact of this subsidy is analyzed using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag-ECM to estimate counterfactual net prices over a three-month period. The analysis shows that the price reaction during the subsidy period differed by fuel type and timing. While evidence of price responses for gasoline is generally lacking, significant responses are estimated for diesel. Gas stations operated by major companies, which received a subsidy covering 80% of the required discount, increased diesel net prices by about 3 cents per liter during the analyzed period. In contrast, stations independent of these companies, whose discount was fully subsidized, raised their prices by approximately 6 cents per liter. The pass-through to diesel consumers at these independent stations has been around 60% on average, falling well below that by the end of the period. Some caution is warranted when implementing this policy measure, given the notably incomplete pass-through revealed in the most important fuel product and the largest group of stations.

中文翻译：

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评估燃料补贴：对零售商定价和转嫁给消费者的动态影响


本文旨在调查燃料零售商在提供旨在支付强制性折扣的补贴后是否战略性地提高了价格，并评估其对向消费者传输的影响。西班牙政府于 2022 年 4 月推出，以应对乌克兰冲突导致的燃料价格飙升，使用非线性自回归分布式滞后 ECM 分析该补贴的影响，以估计三个月内的反事实净价格。分析表明，补贴期间的价格反应因燃料类型和时间而异。虽然通常缺乏汽油价格反应的证据，但估计柴油的反应很大。由大公司经营的加油站获得了涵盖所需折扣 80% 的补贴，在分析期间，柴油净价每升上涨了约 3 美分。相比之下，独立于这些公司（其折扣得到全额补贴）的加油站将价格提高了每升约 6 美分。这些独立加油站向柴油消费者的转嫁率平均约为 60%，远低于该期限结束时的水平。在实施这项政策措施时需要谨慎行事，因为在最重要的燃料产品和最大的加油站组中发现了明显的不完整转嫁。