Due to climate change and human activities, land desertification, a major environmental issue in arid regions, has exerted an impact on ecosystem services (ES). However, previous ES assessments in arid regions lacked the integrated assessment and trade-off analysis of soil-related ecosystem services (S-ES). To address this, we developed a S-ES-Bayesian network (S-ES-BN) model to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between the complex relationships between S-ES and their multiple influences in Central Asia (CA). The results showed that (1) there is a large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in S-ES, with the most significant changes in water yield service (WY, −30%) and soil conservation service (SC, −26%) in the past 30 years (1990–2020); (2) land use and land cover change (LUCC) area shifts can have a gaining or weakening effect on the S-ES. Among them, water to wetland had the most obvious gain effect on SC (+5.1 t·km²·yr⁻¹) and water to forestland had the most pronounced effect on carbon fixation service (CF, +251.22 t); and (3) based on the S-ES-BN, an optimal configuration of S-ES in CA demonstrated that the intensification of a future “warming and wetting” scenario in CA might lead to significant decreases in WY (−37%) and sand fixation (−7%). In addition, the clarification of the land allocation structure (cropland, forestland, and grassland) in LUCC will enhance the spatial demand for CF.

中文翻译：

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土地利用和土地覆盖变化下中亚土壤相关生态系统服务的权衡和协同关系


由于气候变化和人类活动，土地荒漠化作为干旱地区的一个重大环境问题，对生态系统服务（ES）产生了影响。然而，以往干旱地区的ES评估缺乏对土壤相关生态系统服务（S-ES）的综合评估和权衡分析。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个 S-ES-贝叶斯网络 (S-ES-BN) 模型来分析 S-ES 之间的复杂关系及其在中亚 (CA) 的多重影响之间的权衡和协同作用。结果表明：（1）S-ES存在较大的时空异质性，过去变化最显着的是产水服务（WY，-30%）和土壤保持服务（SC，-26%） 30年（1990年-2020年）； (2) 土地利用和土地覆盖变化 (LUCC) 面积变化会对 S-ES 产生增强或减弱的影响。其中，湿地水对SC的增益效果最明显（+5.1 t·km ² ·yr ^-1 ），林地水对固碳服务的效果最明显（CF，+251.22 t）； （3）基于S-ES-BN，CA中S-ES的最佳配置表明，CA未来“变暖和湿润”情景的加剧可能会导致WY（-37％）和固沙（−7%）。此外，土地利用与覆盖变化的土地配置结构（耕地、林地、草地）的明确将增强对森林覆盖的空间需求。