We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity in the United States at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, job postings, and employment rates disaggregated by county, sector, and income group. Using the publicly available data, we show how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its effects across subgroups. High-income individuals reduced spending sharply in March 2020, particularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent, dense areas. Those businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses, especially among low-wage workers in such areas. High-wage workers experienced a V-shaped recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger, more persistent job losses. Even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully by December 2021, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained depressed in areas that were initially hard hit, indicating that the temporary fall in labor demand led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we evaluate the effects of fiscal stimulus policies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. Cash stimulus payments led to sharp increases in spending early in the pandemic, but much smaller responses later in the pandemic, especially for high-income households. Real-time estimates of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the impacts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses, but cannot restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer spending arises from health concerns. More broadly, our analysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and real-time policy analyses, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 的经济影响：来自使用私营部门数据建立的新公共数据库的证据。


我们建立了一个公开可用的数据库，使用私营公司的匿名数据实时跟踪美国的经济活动。我们每周报告按县、行业和收入群体分类的消费者支出、企业收入、职位发布和就业率统计数据。我们利用公开数据，通过分析不同亚组影响的异质性，展示了 COVID-19 大流行如何影响经济。高收入人群在 2020 年 3 月大幅减少支出，特别是在需要面对面互动的领域。支出的减少大大减少了富裕、人口密集地区小企业的收入。这些企业解雇了许多员工，导致广泛的失业，特别是这些地区的低工资工人。高工资工人经历了持续几周的V型衰退，而低工资工人则经历了更大规模、更持久的失业。尽管消费者支出和就业岗位到 2021 年 12 月已完全恢复，但在最初遭受重创的地区，低工资工作的就业率仍然低迷，这表明劳动力需求的暂时下降导致劳动力供应持续减少。在此诊断分析的基础上，我们评估了旨在阻止经济活动螺旋式下降的财政刺激政策的效果。现金刺激支付导致大流行初期支出急剧增加，但在大流行后期，支出的反应要小得多，特别是对高收入家庭而言。与历史估计相比，边际消费倾向的实时估计可以更好地预测后续几轮刺激支付的影响。 总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，财政政策可以阻止消费者支出的二次下降和失业，但当消费者支出最初受到健康问题的冲击时，无法恢复充分就业。更广泛地说，我们的分析表明，根据私营部门数据构建的公共统计数据如何支持许多研究和实时政策分析，为实证宏观经济学提供了新工具。