Effective fisheries management requires accurate estimates of stock biomass and trends; yet, assumptions in stock assessment models generate high levels of uncertainty and error. For 230 fisheries worldwide, we contrasted stock biomass estimates at the time of assessment with updated hindcast estimates modeled for the same year in later assessments to evaluate systematic over- or underestimation. For stocks that were overfished, low value, or located in regions with rising temperatures, historical biomass estimates were generally overstated compared with updated assessments. Moreover, rising trends reported for overfished stocks were often inaccurate. With consideration of bias identified retrospectively, 85% more stocks than currently recognized have likely collapsed below 10% of maximum historical biomass. The high uncertainty and bias in modeled stock estimates warrants much greater precaution by managers.

中文翻译：

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种群评估模型夸大了世界渔业的可持续性


有效的渔业管理需要准确估计种群生物量和趋势；然而，库存评估模型中的假设会产生高度的不确定性和误差。对于全球 230 个渔业场，我们将评估时的种群生物量估计值与后来评估中同年建模的最新后报估计值进行了对比，以评估系统性高估或低估。对于过度捕捞、价值低或位于气温上升地区的种群，与最新评估相比，历史生物量估计值通常被高估。此外，所报告的过度捕捞种群的增长趋势往往是不准确的。考虑到回顾性发现的偏差，比目前认识的多 85% 的种群数量可能已降至最大历史生物量的 10% 以下。模型股票估计中的高度不确定性和偏差需要管理者采取更大的预防措施。