Theory suggests that intolerance of uncertainty (IU), a tendency to perceive uncertain events as threatening, may serve as a potential risk factor for increased intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration; however, few studies have investigated this association, and none have taken a longitudinal approach. We investigated the issue in two longitudinal online investigations (initial N = 282 and 1,118), with time periods ranging from just before the COVID-19 pandemic to the fourth pandemic wave, approximately 1.5 years later. IU was a significant predictor of IPV cross-sectionally, and in the short term longitudinally (i.e., over periods of weeks); however, it did not predict IPV over the longer term (i.e., over periods of months or years). In addition, our longitudinal design allowed assessment of IPV trends across pandemic waves. Physical IPV rates remained low and steady across time. Psychological IPV rates showed an increase in the early days of the pandemic, but then dropped and stabilized, albeit at a somewhat higher rate than pre-pandemic. Study 2 had ample representation of LGBTQ+ respondents and showed that the patterns and processes worked similarly for LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ individuals.

中文翻译：

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未知的危险：前四波大流行中对不确定性和亲密伴侣暴力的不容忍


理论表明，对不确定性的不容忍（IU），即一种将不确定事件视为威胁的倾向，可能是增加亲密伴侣暴力（IPV）犯罪的潜在风险因素；然而，很少有研究调查这种关联，也没有采取纵向方法。我们通过两项纵向在线调查（初始 N = 282 和 1,118）调查了这个问题，时间段从 COVID-19 大流行之前到第四波大流行（大约 1.5 年之后）。 IU 是 IPV 横截面和短期纵向（即数周内）的重要预测因子；然而，它并没有预测长期（即数月或数年）的 IPV。此外，我们的纵向设计可以评估大流行浪潮中的 IPV 趋势。物理 IPV 率在一段时间内保持较低且稳定。心理 IPV 率在大流行初期有所上升，但随后下降并稳定下来，尽管比大流行前略高。研究 2 充分代表了 LGBTQ+ 受访者，并表明这些模式和流程对于 LGBTQ+ 和非 LGBTQ+ 个人的作用类似。