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Traversing the land‐sea interface: A climate change risk assessment of terrestrially breeding marine predators
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-20 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17452 Milan Sojitra 1 , Stuart Corney 2 , Mark Hemer 3 , Sheryl Hamilton 4, 5 , Julie McInnes 4, 6 , Sam Thalmann 5 , Mary-Anne Lea 7
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-20 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17452 Milan Sojitra 1 , Stuart Corney 2 , Mark Hemer 3 , Sheryl Hamilton 4, 5 , Julie McInnes 4, 6 , Sam Thalmann 5 , Mary-Anne Lea 7
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Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central‐place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait‐based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta ), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome ), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus ), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea ) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at‐risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less‐studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land‐dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season.
中文翻译：
穿越陆海界面：陆地繁殖海洋捕食者的气候变化风险评估
由于全球气候变化，陆地繁殖的海洋捕食者经历了物种分布、猎物可用性、繁殖物候和种群动态的变化。这些位于中心位置的觅食者在繁殖季节被限制在其繁殖群体附近，这使得它们非常容易受到海洋和陆地环境的任何变化的影响。虽然生态学家已经开发出风险评估来评估各种情况下的气候风险，但这些往往忽视了关键的育种生物学数据。为了解决这一知识差距，我们开发了一个基于性状的风险评估框架，重点关注繁殖季节，并将其应用于澳大利亚领土和南极洲部分地区的海洋捕食者繁殖。我们的目标是量化气候变化风险、识别具体威胁并建立适应性强的评估框架。该评估考虑了与三个风险组成部分相关的 25 个标准：脆弱性、暴露度和危害，同时考虑了不确定性。我们采用了一个评分系统，该系统结合了系统的文献综述和专家对危险标准的启发。进行蒙特卡罗敏感性分析以确定影响总体风险的关键因素。我们发现了害羞的信天翁（尾海藻）、南跳岩企鹅（金毛桉）、澳大利亚海狗（小头鲸）和澳大利亚海狮（灰蜘蛛）气候紧迫性很高。在低纬度地区繁殖的物种，以及某些耳海豹、信天翁和企鹅物种，尤其面临风险。危害和暴露解释了相对风险的最大变化，超过了脆弱性。 影响大多数物种的主要气候危害包括极端天气事件、栖息地适宜性的变化和猎物的可用性。我们强调需要进一步研究，重点关注高危物种，并填补知识空白（研究较少的危害和/或物种），以提供更准确、更稳健的气候变化风险评估。我们的研究结果为保护工作提供了宝贵的见解，因为在繁殖季节对依赖陆地的海洋捕食者进行监测和实施气候适应策略更为可行。
更新日期：2024-08-20
中文翻译：
穿越陆海界面：陆地繁殖海洋捕食者的气候变化风险评估
由于全球气候变化，陆地繁殖的海洋捕食者经历了物种分布、猎物可用性、繁殖物候和种群动态的变化。这些位于中心位置的觅食者在繁殖季节被限制在其繁殖群体附近，这使得它们非常容易受到海洋和陆地环境的任何变化的影响。虽然生态学家已经开发出风险评估来评估各种情况下的气候风险，但这些往往忽视了关键的育种生物学数据。为了解决这一知识差距，我们开发了一个基于性状的风险评估框架，重点关注繁殖季节，并将其应用于澳大利亚领土和南极洲部分地区的海洋捕食者繁殖。我们的目标是量化气候变化风险、识别具体威胁并建立适应性强的评估框架。该评估考虑了与三个风险组成部分相关的 25 个标准：脆弱性、暴露度和危害，同时考虑了不确定性。我们采用了一个评分系统，该系统结合了系统的文献综述和专家对危险标准的启发。进行蒙特卡罗敏感性分析以确定影响总体风险的关键因素。我们发现了害羞的信天翁（尾海藻）、南跳岩企鹅（金毛桉）、澳大利亚海狗（小头鲸）和澳大利亚海狮（灰蜘蛛）气候紧迫性很高。在低纬度地区繁殖的物种，以及某些耳海豹、信天翁和企鹅物种，尤其面临风险。危害和暴露解释了相对风险的最大变化，超过了脆弱性。 影响大多数物种的主要气候危害包括极端天气事件、栖息地适宜性的变化和猎物的可用性。我们强调需要进一步研究，重点关注高危物种，并填补知识空白（研究较少的危害和/或物种），以提供更准确、更稳健的气候变化风险评估。我们的研究结果为保护工作提供了宝贵的见解，因为在繁殖季节对依赖陆地的海洋捕食者进行监测和实施气候适应策略更为可行。
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