This study aimed to connect the behavioral corporate finance perspective (micro level) with complexity theory via agent-based modeling to analyze the impact of selected psychological factors of chief executive officers (CEOs) on stock market volatility (macro level). Specifically, we wanted to explore whether Polish CEOs’ subjective well-being (SWB) influenced their managerial decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic and how it might be related to the volatility of stock prices during this critical period in Poland. Our study was based on a survey of Polish CEOs who managed companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In particular, 255 CEOs completed the Satisfaction with Life Scale, the Positive and Negative Affect Scale, and a business survey on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on company management. Using the results of this survey, we built an agent-based model to investigate how CEOs’ decision-making, stemming from their SWB levels, influences the perception of prices by individual traders and, in turn, how it is translated into aggregate stock market volatility. The results indicate the pathways through which the microscopic-level SWB of CEOs influences market price formation at a macroscopic level. The findings obtained from our model may shed new light on the rational expectations theory applied to stock market volatility during the financial crisis.

本研究旨在通过基于主体的建模将行为公司财务视角（微观层面）与复杂性理论联系起来，分析首席执行官（CEO）选定的心理因素对股市波动（宏观层面）的影响。具体来说，我们想探讨波兰首席执行官的主观幸福感 (SWB) 是否影响了他们在 COVID-19 大流行期间的管理决策，以及它与波兰这一关键时期的股价波动有何关系。我们的研究基于对管理在华沙证券交易所上市公司的波兰首席执行官的调查。特别是，255位首席执行官完成了生活满意度量表、积极和消极影响量表以及关于COVID-19大流行对公司管理影响的商业调查。利用这项调查的结果，我们建立了一个基于代理的模型，以研究首席执行官的决策（源于其主观幸福感水平）如何影响个体交易者对价格的看法，以及如何将其转化为总体股票市场挥发性。结果表明了首席执行官微观层面的主观幸福感在宏观层面影响市场价格形成的途径。从我们的模型中获得的结果可能为金融危机期间应用于股市波动的理性预期理论提供新的启示。