Asymmetric effects of hydroclimate extremes on eastern US tree growth: Implications on current demographic shifts and climate variability,Global Change Biology

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Asymmetric effects of hydroclimate extremes on eastern US tree growth: Implications on current demographic shifts and climate variability
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-20 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17474
Justin T Maxwell ₁ , Tsun Fung Au _{2,

3} , Steven A Kannenberg ₄ , Grant L Harley ₅ , Matthew P Dannenberg ₆ , Darren L Ficklin ₁ , Scott M Robeson ₁ , Macarena Férriz ₁ , Michael C Benson ₇ , Benjamin R Lockwood ₈ , Kimberly A Novick ₉ , Richard P Phillips ₁₀ , Maegen L Rochner ₁₁ , Neil Pederson ₁₂

Affiliation

Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA.
Institute for Global Change Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Department of Biology, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA.
Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA.
Department of Geographical and Sustainability Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA.
School of Integrative Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, USA.
Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA.
O'Neil School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA.
Department of Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA.
Department of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, USA.
Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, USA.

Forests around the world are experiencing changes due to climate variability and human land use. How these changes interact and influence the vulnerability of forests are not well understood. In the eastern United States, well-documented anthropogenic disturbances and land-use decisions, such as logging and fire suppression, have influenced forest species assemblages, leading to a demographic shift from forests dominated by xeric species to those dominated by mesic species. Contemporarily, the climate has changed and is expected to continue to warm and produce higher evaporative demand, imposing stronger drought stress on forest communities. Here, we use an extensive network of tree-ring records from common hardwood species across ~100 sites and ~1300 trees in the eastern United States to examine the magnitude of growth response to both wet and dry climate extremes. We find that growth reductions during drought exceed the positive growth response to pluvials. Mesic species such as Liriodendron tulipifera and Acer saccharum, which are becoming more dominant, are more sensitive to drought than more xeric species, such as oaks (Quercus) and hickory (Carya), especially at moderate and extreme drought intensities. Although more extreme droughts produce a larger annual growth reduction, mild droughts resulted in the largest cumulative growth decreases due to their higher frequency. When using global climate model projections, all scenarios show drought frequency increasing substantially (3–9 times more likely) by 2100. Thus, the ongoing demographic shift toward more mesic species in the eastern United States combined with drier conditions results in larger drought-induced growth declines, suggesting that drought will have an even larger impact on aboveground carbon uptake in the future in the eastern United States.

中文翻译：

极端水文气候对美国东部树木生长的不对称影响：对当前人口变化和气候变化的影响

由于气候变化和人类土地利用，世界各地的森林正在经历变化。这些变化如何相互作用并影响森林的脆弱性尚不清楚。在美国东部，有据可查的人为干扰和土地利用决策，例如伐木和灭火，影响了森林物种的组合，导致人口结构从以旱生物种为主的森林转变为以中生物种为主的森林。目前，气候已经发生变化，预计将继续变暖，产生更高的蒸发需求，给森林群落带来更大的干旱压力。在这里，我们使用美国东部约 100 个地点和约 1300 棵树的常见硬木树种的树木年轮记录网络来检查生长对潮湿和干燥极端气候的反应程度。我们发现干旱期间生长的减少超过了雨雪期间生长的积极反应。鹅掌楸和糖槭等中湿物种正变得越来越占主导地位，它们比橡树 ( Quercus ) 和山核桃 ( Carya ) 等旱生物种对干旱更敏感，特别是在中度和极端干旱强度下。虽然更极端的干旱会导致年生长量下降幅度更大，但轻度干旱由于发生频率较高，导致累积生长量下降幅度最大。使用全球气候模型预测时，所有情景都显示，到 2100 年，干旱频率将大幅增加（可能性增加 3-9 倍）。因此，美国东部人口不断向中温物种转变，再加上干旱条件，导致干旱引起的生长下降幅度更大，这表明干旱将对美国东部未来的地上碳吸收产生更大的影响。

更新日期：2024-08-21

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