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An invasive prey and changing climate interact to shape the breeding phenology of an endangered predator
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-20 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17478 Robert J Fletcher 1 , Meghan A Beatty 1 , Lara Elmquist 1 , Brian M Jeffery 1 , Caroline L Poli 1 , Ellen P Robertson 1
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-20 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17478 Robert J Fletcher 1 , Meghan A Beatty 1 , Lara Elmquist 1 , Brian M Jeffery 1 , Caroline L Poli 1 , Ellen P Robertson 1
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Changes in phenology are occurring from global climate change, yet the impacts of other types of global change on the phenology of animals remain less appreciated. Understanding the potential for synergistic effects of different types of global change on phenology is needed, because changing climate regimes can have cascading effects, particularly on invasive species that vary in their thermal tolerances. Using 25 years of data from 5963 nests and 4675 marked individuals across the entire US breeding range of an endangered predator, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus), we isolated the effects of an invasion of novel prey and warming temperatures on breeding phenology and its demographic consequences. Over this time period, breeding season length doubled, increasing by approximately 14 weeks. Both temperature and the establishment of invasive prey interacted to explain the timing of nest initiation. Temperature and invasive prey played distinct roles: earlier nest initiation occurred with increasing temperatures, whereas late nesting increased with invasion. Ultimately, both nest survival and juvenile survival declined later in the year, such that effects from invasive prey, but not warming temperatures, have the apparent potential for mistiming in breeding phenology by some individuals. Nonetheless, relatively few nesting events occurred during late fall when nest survival was very low, and seasonal declines in nest survival were weaker and renesting was more frequent in invaded wetlands, such that total reproductive output increased with invasion. Variation in demographic effects illustrate that considering only particular components of demography (e.g., nest survival rates) may be inadequate to infer the overall consequences of changes in phenology, particularly the potential for mistiming of phenological events. These results emphasize that species invasions may profoundly alter phenology of native species, such effects are distinct from climate effects, and both interact to drive population change.
中文翻译：
入侵猎物和不断变化的气候相互作用，塑造了濒危捕食者的繁殖物候
全球气候变化导致物候发生变化，但其他类型的全球变化对动物物候的影响仍鲜为人知。需要了解不同类型的全球变化对物候产生协同效应的潜力，因为气候变化可能会产生连锁效应，特别是对于耐热性不同的入侵物种。利用来自濒危捕食者蜗鸢（ Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ）整个美国繁殖范围内 5963 个巢穴和 4675 个标记个体的 25 年数据，我们分离出了新猎物入侵和气温升高对繁殖物候及其繁殖的影响。人口影响。在此期间，繁殖季节长度增加了一倍，增加了约 14 周。温度和入侵猎物的建立相互作用，解释了巢穴形成的时间。温度和入侵猎物发挥着不同的作用：随着温度的升高，筑巢时间越早，而随着入侵，筑巢时间越晚。最终，巢穴存活率和幼年存活率在今年晚些时候都下降了，因此入侵猎物的影响，而不是气温升高的影响，显然有可能导致一些个体在繁殖物候方面出现错误。尽管如此，晚秋筑巢事件相对较少，此时巢穴存活率非常低，巢穴存活率的季节性下降较弱，在被入侵的湿地中重新筑巢更为频繁，因此总繁殖产量随着入侵而增加。人口影响的变化表明，仅考虑人口统计的特定组成部分（例如，巢存活率）可能不足以推断物候变化的总体后果，特别是物候事件发生时间错误的可能性。这些结果强调，物种入侵可能会深刻改变本地物种的物候，这种影响与气候影响不同，并且两者相互作用，驱动种群变化。
更新日期：2024-08-21
中文翻译：
入侵猎物和不断变化的气候相互作用，塑造了濒危捕食者的繁殖物候
全球气候变化导致物候发生变化，但其他类型的全球变化对动物物候的影响仍鲜为人知。需要了解不同类型的全球变化对物候产生协同效应的潜力，因为气候变化可能会产生连锁效应，特别是对于耐热性不同的入侵物种。利用来自濒危捕食者蜗鸢（ Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ）整个美国繁殖范围内 5963 个巢穴和 4675 个标记个体的 25 年数据，我们分离出了新猎物入侵和气温升高对繁殖物候及其繁殖的影响。人口影响。在此期间，繁殖季节长度增加了一倍，增加了约 14 周。温度和入侵猎物的建立相互作用，解释了巢穴形成的时间。温度和入侵猎物发挥着不同的作用：随着温度的升高，筑巢时间越早，而随着入侵，筑巢时间越晚。最终，巢穴存活率和幼年存活率在今年晚些时候都下降了，因此入侵猎物的影响，而不是气温升高的影响，显然有可能导致一些个体在繁殖物候方面出现错误。尽管如此，晚秋筑巢事件相对较少，此时巢穴存活率非常低，巢穴存活率的季节性下降较弱，在被入侵的湿地中重新筑巢更为频繁，因此总繁殖产量随着入侵而增加。人口影响的变化表明，仅考虑人口统计的特定组成部分（例如，巢存活率）可能不足以推断物候变化的总体后果，特别是物候事件发生时间错误的可能性。这些结果强调，物种入侵可能会深刻改变本地物种的物候，这种影响与气候影响不同，并且两者相互作用，驱动种群变化。
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