Beyond resilience: Responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes in temperate forest landscapes across the Northern Hemisphere,Global Change Biology

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Beyond resilience: Responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes in temperate forest landscapes across the Northern Hemisphere
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-20 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17468
Christina Dollinger ₁ , Werner Rammer ₁ , Kureha F Suzuki _{2,

3} , Kristin H Braziunas ₁ , Timon T Keller ₄ , Yuta Kobayashi ₅ , Johannes Mohr ₁ , Akira S Mori ₂ , Monica G Turner ₄ , Rupert Seidl _{1,

6}

Affiliation

Climate change has profound impacts on forest ecosystem dynamics and could lead to the emergence of novel ecosystems via changes in species composition, forest structure, and potentially a complete loss of tree cover. Disturbances fundamentally shape those dynamics: the prevailing disturbance regime of a region determines the inherent variability of a system, and its climate-mediated change could accelerate forest transformation. We used the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to investigate the resilience of three protected temperate forest landscapes on three continents—selected to represent a gradient from low to high disturbance activity—to changing climate and disturbance regimes. In scenarios of sustained strong global warming, natural disturbances increased across all landscapes regardless of projected changes in precipitation (up to a sevenfold increase in disturbance rate over the 180-year simulation period). Forests in landscapes with historically high disturbance activity had a higher chance of remaining resilient in the future, retaining their structure and composition within the range of variability inherent to the system. However, the risk of regime shift and forest loss was also highest in these systems, suggesting forests may be vulnerable to abrupt change beyond a threshold of increasing disturbance activity. Resilience generally decreased with increasing severity of climate change. Novelty in tree species composition was more common than novelty in forest structure, especially under dry climate scenarios. Forests close to the upper tree line experienced high novelty in structure across all three study systems. Our results highlight common patterns and processes of forest change, while also underlining the diverse and context-specific responses of temperate forest landscapes to climate change. Understanding past and future disturbance regimes can anticipate the magnitude and direction of forest change. Yet, even across a broad gradient of disturbance activity, we conclude that climate change mitigation is the most effective means of maintaining forest resilience.

中文翻译：

超越复原力：对北半球温带森林景观不断变化的气候和干扰机制的反应

气候变化对森林生态系统动态产生深远影响，并可能通过物种组成、森林结构的变化以及可能的树木覆盖完全丧失而导致新生态系统的出现。干扰从根本上塑造了这些动态：一个地区普遍存在的干扰机制决定了系统的固有变异性，其气候介导的变化可能加速森林转型。我们使用基于个体的森林景观和干扰模型 iLand 来研究三大洲的三个受保护的温带森林景观（选择代表从低到高干扰活动的梯度）对不断变化的气候和干扰状况的恢复力。在全球持续强烈变暖的情况下，无论预计的降水量如何变化，所有景观的自然扰动都会增加（在 180 年的模拟期内，扰动率最多增加七倍）。历史上干扰活动频繁的景观中的森林在未来保持弹性的机会更大，将其结构和组成保留在系统固有的可变性范围内。然而，在这些系统中，政权更迭和森林丧失的风险也最高，这表明森林可能容易受到超出干扰活动增加阈值的突然变化的影响。随着气候变化严重程度的增加，复原力普遍下降。树种组成的新颖性比森林结构的新颖性更常见，特别是在干燥气候情况下。在所有三个研究系统中，靠近树线上部的森林在结构上都经历了高度新颖的情况。我们的研究结果强调了森林变化的常见模式和过程，同时也强调了温带森林景观对气候变化的多样化和特定环境的反应。了解过去和未来的干扰状况可以预测森林变化的幅度和方向。然而，即使在干扰活动范围很广的情况下，我们得出的结论是，减缓气候变化是维持森林恢复力的最有效手段。

更新日期：2024-08-21

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