We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

中文翻译：

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NPCC4：尾部风险、极端高温的气候驱动因素以及极端事件预测的新方法


我们总结了纽约市 （NYC） 历史上的气候变化趋势，并根据一系列全球温室气体排放情景提供了关于预计未来变化的最新科学分析。在之前的 NPCC 评估报告的基础上，我们描述了用于跨多种排放路径对纽约市海平面上升、温度和降水进行记录预测的新方法，并分析了与耦合模式比较项目 （CMIP6） 第 6 阶段相关的“热门模型”问题及其对纽约市气候预测的潜在影响。我们描述了纽约市温度变化的科学状况，并解释了导致极端高温事件的大规模和区域动态，以及导致极端高温暴露分配不公平的当地物理驱动因素。我们确定了尾部风险的三个领域及其错误描述的可能性，包括极端事件的物理过程和气候变化的影响。最后，我们回顾了未来研究的机会，重点关注热模型问题以及预测的空间分辨率与气候信号对城市内部热量和热量暴露影响的知识差距的交集。