Perceptions of crime detection risk (e.g., risk of arrest) play an integral role in the criminal decision-making process. Yet, the sources of variation in those perceptions are not well understood. Do individuals respond to changes in legal policy or is perception of detection risk shaped like other perceptions-by experience, heuristics, and with biases? We applied a developmental perspective to study self-reported perception of detection risk. We test four hypotheses against data from the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (analytic sample of N = 985 New Zealanders), a study that spans 20 years of development (Ages 18-38, years 1990-2011). We reach four conclusions: (1) people form their perception of detection risk early in the life course; (2) perception of detection risk may be general rather than unique to each crime type; (3) population-level perceptions are stable between adolescence and adulthood; but (4) people update their perceptions when their life circumstances change. The importance of these findings for future theoretical and policy work is considered. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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利用犯罪侦查风险来研究决策机制的变化。


对犯罪侦查风险（例如逮捕风险）的看法在刑事决策过程中发挥着不可或缺的作用。然而，这些看法差异的根源尚不清楚。个人是否会对法律政策的变化做出反应，或者对检测风险的看法是否像其他看法一样——通过经验、启发法和偏见形成？我们运用发展的视角来研究自我报告的检测风险感知。我们根据但尼丁纵向研究（N = 985 名新西兰人的分析样本）的数据测试了四个假设，这项研究跨越了 20 年的发展（18-38 岁，1990-2011 年）。我们得出四个结论：（1）人们在生命历程的早期就形成了对检测风险的认知； (2) 对侦查风险的认知可能是普遍的，而不是针对每种犯罪类型所特有的； (3) 人口层面的认知在青春期和成年期之间保持稳定；但是（4）当人们的生活环境发生变化时，他们的看法也会更新。考虑了这些发现对未来理论和政策工作的重要性。 （PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。