Enhanced nitrous oxide emission factors due to climate change increase the mitigation challenge in the agricultural sector,Global Change Biology

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Enhanced nitrous oxide emission factors due to climate change increase the mitigation challenge in the agricultural sector
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-19 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17472
Linchao Li ₁ , Chaoqun Lu ₁ , Wilfried Winiwarter _{2,

3} , Hanqin Tian _{4,

5} , Josep G Canadell ₆ , Akihiko Ito _{7,

8} , Atul K Jain ₉ , Sian Kou-Giesbrecht ₁₀ , Shufen Pan _{4,

11} , Naiqing Pan ₄ , Hao Shi ₁₂ , Qing Sun ₁₃ , Nicolas Vuichard ₁₄ , Shuchao Ye ₁ , Sönke Zaehle ₁₅ , Qing Zhu ₁₆

Affiliation

Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Zielona Góra, Zielona Góra, Poland.
Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA.
CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8657, Japan.
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Department of Engineering and Environmental Studies Program, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA.
Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE, CEA CNRS, UVSQ UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette, France.
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA.

Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter N2O emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process‐based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios. Our findings reveal that EFs are dynamically modulated by environmental changes, including climate, soil properties, and nitrogen management practices. Under low‐ambition nitrogen regulation policies, EF would increase from 1.18%–1.22% in 2010 to 1.27%–1.34% by 2050, representing a relative increase of 4.4%–11.4% and exceeding the IPCC tier‐1 EF of 1%. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical and subtropical regions with high nitrogen inputs, where EFs could increase by 0.14%–0.35% (relative increase of 11.9%–17%). In contrast, high‐ambition policies have the potential to mitigate the increases in EF caused by climate change, possibly leading to slight decreases in EFs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that global EFs are expected to continue rising due to warming and regional drying–wetting cycles, even in the absence of changes in nitrogen management practices. This asymmetrical influence of nitrogen fertilizers on EFs, driven by climate change, underscores the urgent need for immediate N2O emission reductions and further assessments of mitigation potentials. This hybrid modeling framework offers a computationally efficient approach to projecting future N2O emissions across various climate, soil, and nitrogen management scenarios, facilitating socio‐economic assessments and policy‐making efforts.

中文翻译：

气候变化导致一氧化二氮排放因子增加，增加了农业部门的缓解挑战

有效的氮肥管理对于减少一氧化二氮（N 2 O) 排放，同时确保地球范围内的粮食安全。然而，气候变化也可能与管理实践相互作用，从而改变 N 2 O排放和排放因子（EF），进一步增加了估算缓解潜力的不确定性。在这里，我们开发了一个新的混合建模框架，该框架将机器学习模型与八个基于流程的模型集成在一起，以预测不同气候和氮政策情景下的EF。我们的研究结果表明，EF 受到环境变化的动态调节，包括气候、土壤特性和氮管理实践。在低目标氮调控政策下，EF将从2010年的1.18%~1.22%增加到2050年的1.27%~1.34%，相对增长4.4%~11.4%，超过IPCC一级EF的1%。这一趋势在氮输入量较高的热带和亚热带地区尤为明显，这些地区的 EF 可能增加 0.14%–0.35%（相对增加 11.9%–17%）。相比之下，雄心勃勃的政策有可能减轻气候变化引起的 EF 增加，可能导致 EF 略有下降。此外，我们的结果表明，即使氮管理实践没有变化，由于变暖和区域干湿循环，全球EF预计将继续上升。在气候变化的推动下，氮肥对 EF 的这种不对称影响凸显了立即施氮的迫切需要。 2氧气减排量和缓解潜力的进一步评估。这种混合建模框架提供了一种计算有效的方法来预测未来的 N 2各种气候、土壤和氮管理情景下的氧气排放，促进社会经济评估和政策制定工作。

更新日期：2024-08-19

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