In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model to investigate nosocomial infections caused by both antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. A focus of our modeling study is the presence of multiple transmission pathways, including the primary infection, co-infection, and re-infection from each type of bacteria, and their interplay with each other in the process of disease spread. We calibrate this model to clinical data and quantify the effects of each transmission route in the epidemic development and evolution. Our data fitting and numerical simulation results indicate that resistant bacteria play a more significant role than sensitive bacteria in shaping the hospital epidemics in our study, highlighting the importance of effective prevention and intervention strategies for antibiotic-resistant bacteria. We also find that the primary infection and re-infection have a larger impact than the co-infection on the short-term and long-term progression of the epidemics.

中文翻译：

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医院细菌感染的多种传播途径——模型研究


在本文中，我们提出了一种新的数学模型来研究由抗生素敏感和抗生素耐药细菌引起的医院感染。我们模型研究的重点是多种传播途径的存在，包括每种细菌的原发感染、合并感染和再感染，以及它们在疾病传播过程中的相互作用。我们根据临床数据校准该模型，并量化每种传播途径在流行病发展和演变中的影响。我们的数据拟合和数值模拟结果表明，在我们的研究中，耐药菌在塑造医院流行病方面比敏感细菌发挥着更重要的作用，凸显了对抗生素耐药菌有效预防和干预策略的重要性。我们还发现，初次感染和再次感染对疫情短期和长期进展的影响比合并感染更大。