The City of Stockholm is conducting a scenario planning exercise to explore where potential future office development should be planned: closer to the city centre as in the status quo, in peripheral hubs on the outskirts of the city, or dispersed throughout multiple neighbourhoods. To support this exercise, this paper models these three scenarios using a nested work location and dynamic activity-based scheduling model. Our model predicts that high-income individuals have the highest consumer welfare benefits and are over-represented as workers in all scenarios. Developing more central office space will likely reinforce existing geographical patterns of income inequality in Stockholm; developing peripheral or dispersed office space, especially in the south of the city, will challenge these patterns. However, the model also illustrates a tension between the goals of equity and the environment. By taking advantage of existing transit infrastructure and congestion patterns, more central office development will result in lower vehicle kilometers travelled and lower car mode share for commuting than more peripheral or dispersed development.

中文翻译：

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斯德哥尔摩未来就业增长规划的情景建模


斯德哥尔摩市正在开展情景规划工作，以探索未来潜在的办公楼开发应该规划在哪里：按照现状，靠近市中心，在城市郊区的外围枢纽，或者分散在多个社区。为了支持这项练习，本文使用嵌套工作位置和基于活动的动态调度模型对这三种场景进行建模。我们的模型预测，高收入个人拥有最高的消费者福利，并且在所有情况下作为工人的比例都很高。开发更多的中央办公空间可能会加剧斯德哥尔摩现有的收入不平等地理格局；开发外围或分散的办公空间，特别是在城市南部，将挑战这些模式。然而，该模型也说明了公平目标与环境目标之间的紧张关系。通过利用现有的交通基础设施和拥堵模式，与外围或分散的开发相比，更多的中心办公室开发将导致更少的车辆行驶里程和更低的汽车通勤模式份额。