This paper presents a method using small data to enhance maintenance efficiency, addressing the limitations of solely qualitative maintenance records. It involves the use of a model based on the Bayesian–Weibull first-order reliability method (BW-FORM) for component analysis and a stochastic analytic hierarchy process for system-level assessment, including fault-tree analysis and reliability-centered maintenance for prioritizing tasks. Key components such as “gate body” and “wire rope” significantly affect system reliability, whereas “rusted crane base” and “bolt on base falling” are the top maintenance priorities. The Mudan Reservoir case study validates this approach, with the life expectation estimated using the BW-FORM aligning well with expert predictions.

中文翻译：

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使用组件和系统可靠性为 Tainter 门制定基于小型数据的维护计划


本文提出了一种使用小数据来提高维护效率的方法，解决了单纯定性维护记录的局限性。它涉及使用基于贝叶斯-威布尔一阶可靠性方法 (BW-FORM) 的模型进行组件分析，并使用随机层次分析过程进行系统级评估，包括故障树分析和以可靠性为中心的维护以进行优先级排序任务。 “门体”和“钢丝绳”等关键部件对系统可靠性影响很大，而“起重机基座生锈”和“基座上的螺栓掉落”是维护的首要任务。牡丹水库案例研究验证了这种方法，使用 BW-FORM 估算的预期寿命与专家预测非常吻合。