Understanding how future ocean conditions will impact early life stages and population recruitment of fishes is critical for adapting fisheries communities to climate change. In this study, we incorporated projected changes in physical and biological ecosystem dynamics from an oceanographic model into a mechanistic individual-based model for larval and juvenile stages of the Pacific cod () in the eastern Bering Sea. We particularly investigated the impacts of ocean currents, temperature, prey density, and pCO2 on the hatching success, growth, survival, and spatial distribution of this species during 2021–2100. We evaluated two CO emission scenarios: RCP8.5 (high CO emissions, low mitigation efforts) and RCP4.5 (medium CO emissions and mitigation efforts). We found that the increase in temperature and decrease in prey density were the main drivers of faster growth rates and lower survival through increased starvation by the end of the century. Conversely, pCO had negligible impacts, which suggests that this species might be resilient to ocean acidification. The largest effects were observed under the high CO emission scenario, while the RCP4.5 projections displayed minimal impacts. We also identified an area with favourable conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea that will likely persist in future decades. This study provides relevant information on the future impacts of climate change on Pacific cod, and our results can be used to implement and inform climate-ready management for this important stock in Alaska.

中文翻译：

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模拟太平洋鳕鱼（Gadus macrocephalus）早期生命阶段预计气候变化的多种作用途径


了解未来海洋状况将如何影响鱼类的早期生命阶段和种群补充对于渔业社区适应气候变化至关重要。在这项研究中，我们将海洋学模型中物理和生物生态系统动力学的预计变化纳入白令海东部太平洋鳕鱼幼体和幼体阶段的基于个体的机械模型中。我们特别调查了 2021 年至 2100 年期间洋流、温度、猎物密度和 pCO2 对该物种的孵化成功、生长、生存和空间分布的影响。我们评估了两种二氧化碳排放情景：RCP8.5（高二氧化碳排放，低缓解努力）和RCP4.5（中等二氧化碳排放和缓解努力）。我们发现，到本世纪末，气温升高和猎物密度下降是导致生长速度加快和饥饿加剧导致存活率降低的主要驱动因素。相反，pCO 的影响可以忽略不计，这表明该物种可能对海洋酸化具有抵抗力。在高二氧化碳排放情景下观察到的影响最大，而 RCP4.5 预测显示的影响最小。我们还在白令海东南部确定了一个具有有利条件的区域，该区域可能会在未来几十年内持续存在。这项研究提供了有关气候变化对太平洋鳕鱼未来影响的相关信息，我们的结果可用于对阿拉斯加这一重要种群的气候适应管理实施和提供信息。