On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.

中文翻译：

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优化疾病爆发预测集合

根据历史流感和 COVID-19 预测，我们发现需要 3 个以上的预测模型才能确保稳健的整体准确性。额外的模型可以提高集成性能，但精度回报会递减。这种理解将有助于设计当前和未来的协作传染病预测工作。