While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

中文翻译：

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开发、测试和传达地震预报：当前实践和未来方向


虽然确定性地预测地震的时间和位置仍然是不可能的，但地震预报模型可以提供对一段时间内某个地区发生地震的概率的估计。为了使民防、政府机构或公众能够做出明智的决策，业务地震预报 (OEF) 系统旨在根据当前地震活动近乎实时地提供权威的地震预报。建立 OEF 系统涉及几个重要的选择。这篇综述捕捉了全球 OEF 的现状，并分析了专家关于地震预报的开发、测试和交流的建议。对 OEF 相关研究进行了介绍性总结，随后描述了意大利、新西兰和美国的 OEF 系统。这两部分相结合，提供了当今 OEF 格局的信息丰富且透明的快照。在第 4 节中，我们分析了为建立 OEF 系统寻求指导而进行的专家征求意见的结果。该征求意见确定了由 20 名国际地震预报专家组成的非代表性小组对 OEF 问题的共识和异议。虽然专家们一致认为通信产品应该与预测用户群体合作开发，但他们在预测模型和测试方法是否应该依赖于用户的问题上存在分歧。无法得出严格模型要求的建议，但鼓励基准比较、前瞻性测试、可重复性和透明度。第五部分对 OEF 的未来进行了展望。 除了涵盖地震预报模型开发和测试的最新研究之外，即将推出的 OEF 举措还在专家启发结果的背景下进行了描述。