We present here the first experimental science (consensus)-based mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) method and its validation results in the form of national prospectivity maps and datasets for PGE–Ni–Cu–Cr and Witwatersrand-type Au deposits in South Africa. The research objectives were: (1) to develop the method toward applicative uses; (2) to the extent possible, validate the effectiveness of the method; and (3) to provide national MPM products. The MPM method was validated by targeting mega-deposits within the world’s largest and best exploited geological systems and mining districts—the Bushveld Complex and the Witwatersrand Basin. Their incomparable knowledge and mega-deposit status make them the most useful for validating MPM methods, serving as “certified reference targets”. Our MPM method is built using scientific consensus via deep ensemble construction, using workflow experimentation that propagates uncertainty of subjective workflow choices by mimicking the outcome of an ensemble of data scientists. The consensus models are a data-driven equivalent to expert aggregation, increasing confidence in our MPM products. By capturing workflow-induced uncertainty, the study produced MPM products that not only highlight potential exploration targets but also offer a spatial consensus level for each, de-risking downstream exploration. Our MPM results agree qualitatively with exploration and geological knowledge. In particular, our method identified areas of high prospectivity in known exploration regions and geologically and geospatially corresponding to the known extents of both mineral systems. The convergence rate of the ensemble demonstrated a high level of statistical durability of our MPM products, suggesting that they can guide exploration at a national scale until significant new data emerge. Potential new exploration targets for PGE–Ni–Cu–Cr are located northwest of the Bushveld Complex; for Au, promising areas are west of the Witwatersrand Basin. The broader implications of this work for the mineral industry are profound. As exploration becomes more data-driven, the question of trust in MPM products must be addressed; it can be done using the proposed scientific method.

Graphical Abstract

中文翻译：

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通过科学共识进行矿产勘查：南非首个 PGE-Ni-Cu-Cr 和 Witwatersrand 型金矿床国家前景图

我们在这里介绍第一个基于实验科学（共识）的矿产前景图绘制（MPM）方法及其以南非 PGE-Ni-Cu-Cr 和 Witwatersrand 型金矿床国家前景图和数据集形式的验证结果。研究目标是：（1）开发实用方法； (2) 尽可能验证方法的有效性； (3)提供国家级MPM产品。 MPM 方法通过针对世界上最大、开发最充分的地质系统和矿区（布什维尔德综合体和威特沃特斯兰德盆地）内的大型矿床进行了验证。他们无与伦比的知识和巨额存款状况使他们成为验证 MPM 方法最有用的工具，可作为“经过认证的参考目标”。我们的 MPM 方法是通过深度集成构建使用科学共识构建的，使用工作流实验通过模仿数据科学家集成的结果来传播主观工作流选择的不确定性。共识模型是数据驱动的，相当于专家聚合，增强了人们对我们 MPM 产品的信心。通过捕捉工作流程引起的不确定性，该研究产生的 MPM 产品不仅突出了潜在的勘探目标，而且还为每个目标提供了空间共识水平，从而降低了下游勘探的风险。我们的 MPM 结果在质量上与勘探和地质知识一致。特别是，我们的方法在已知勘探区域中确定了高前景区域，并且在地质和地理空间上与两个矿物系统的已知范围相对应。 集合的收敛速度证明了我们的 MPM 产品具有高水平的统计耐久性，这表明它们可以指导全国范围内的勘探，直到出现重要的新数据。 PGE-Ni-Cu-Cr 的潜在新勘探目标位于 Bushveld 杂岩体的西北部；对于 Au 来说，有希望的地区是 Witwatersrand 盆地以西。这项工作对采矿业的更广泛影响是深远的。随着探索变得更加数据驱动，必须解决对 MPM 产品的信任问题；可以使用建议的科学方法来完成。

 图解摘要