Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961–1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau’s concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with the surrounding areas. We noted a seasonal effect on plague activity, and human cases linearly correlated with precipitation and rodent and flea Y. pestis positivity rates. Genomic characterization of Y. pestis strains revealed a foundational strain capable of evolving into distinct genetic variants, each linked to temporally and spatially constrained plague outbreaks. These data could identify risk areas and improve surveillance in other plague foci within the Caatinga biome.

鼠疫是一种致命的人畜共患病，仍然对世界许多地区构成威胁。我们将 1961 年至 1980 年期间从巴西东北部阿拉里皮高原重点地区收集的流行病学、宿主和媒介监测数据与生态、地理气候和鼠疫耶尔森氏菌基因组信息相结合，以阐明这些因素在鼠疫活动中如何相互作用。我们确定了边界明确的鼠疫热点地区，这些地区显示高原凹区山麓附近的低海拔地区鼠疫风险较高。与周围地区相比，这些地点表现出独特的降水和植被覆盖模式。我们注意到季节性对鼠疫活动的影响，人类病例与降水量以及啮齿动物和跳蚤鼠疫耶尔森氏菌阳性率呈线性相关。鼠疫耶尔森菌株的基因组特征揭示了一种能够进化成不同遗传变异的基础菌株，每种变异都与时间和空间上受限的鼠疫爆发有关。这些数据可以识别风险区域并改善卡廷加生物群落内其他鼠疫疫源地的监测。