The rising carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to increase future rice yields. However, variations in the CO₂ fertilization effect (CFE) between rice subspecies and the influence of concurrent global warming introduce uncertainty in future global rice yield projections. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of rising carbon dioxide field experiments and employed crop modelling to assess future global rice yields for the top 14 rice producing countries. We found a robust parabolic relationship between rice CFE and temperature, with significant variations between rice subspecies. Our projections indicate that global rice production in the 2050s is expected to increase by 50.32 million tonnes (7.6%) due to CFE compared with historical production. Because low-income countries will experience higher temperatures, the gaps (difference of Δyield) between middle-to-high-income and low-income countries are projected to widen from the 2030s to the 2090s under elevated carbon dioxide. These findings underscore the critical role of CFE and emphasize the necessity to increase investments in research and technology for rice producing systems in low-income countries.

二氧化碳浓度的上升预计将提高未来的水稻产量。然而，水稻亚种之间 CO₂ 施肥效应 （CFE） 的变化以及同时发生的全球变暖的影响为未来的全球水稻产量预测带来了不确定性。在这里，我们对二氧化碳上升的田间实验进行了荟萃分析，并采用作物建模来评估前 14 个水稻生产国的未来全球水稻产量。我们发现水稻 CFE 与温度之间存在稳健的抛物线关系，水稻亚种之间存在显著差异。我们的预测表明，与历史产量相比，由于CFE导致，2050年代全球稻米产量预计将增加5032万吨（7.6%）。由于低收入国家将经历更高的温度，因此在二氧化碳升高的情况下，预计中高收入和低收入国家之间的差距（Δyield 的差异）将从 2030 年代到 2090 年代扩大。这些发现强调了 CFE 的关键作用，并强调了增加对低收入国家水稻生产系统研究和技术投资的必要性。