Nature Medicine ( IF 58.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-12 , DOI: 10.1038/s41591-024-03186-1 Elisa Gallo 1 , Marcos Quijal-Zamorano 1, 2 , Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates 1 , Cathryn Tonne 1, 2, 3 , Xavier Basagaña 1, 2, 3 , Hicham Achebak 1, 4 , Joan Ballester 1
The year of 2023 was the warmest on record globally and the second warmest in Europe. Here we applied epidemiological models to temperature and mortality records in 823 contiguous regions from 35 countries to estimate sex- and age-specific heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and to quantify the mortality burden avoided by societal adaptation to rising temperatures since the year 2000. We estimated 47,690 (95% confidence interval 28,853 to 66,525) heat-related deaths in 2023, the second highest mortality burden during the study period 2015–2023, only surpassed by 2022. We also estimated that the heat-related mortality burden would have been +80.0% higher in absence of present-century adaptation, especially in the elderly (+100.7% in people aged 80+ years). Our results highlight the importance of historical and ongoing adaptations in saving lives during recent summers and the urgency for more effective strategies to further reduce the mortality burden of forthcoming hotter summers.
中文翻译:
2023 年欧洲与高温相关的死亡率以及适应在保护健康中的作用
2023 年是全球有记录以来最热的一年,也是欧洲第二热的一年。在这里,我们将流行病学模型应用于 35 个国家/地区 823 个连续地区的温度和死亡率记录,以估计 2023 年欧洲特定性别和年龄的高温相关死亡率,并量化自 2000 年以来社会适应气温上升所避免的死亡负担。我们估计 2023 年有 47,690 例(95% 置信区间 28,853 至 66,525)与高温相关的死亡,是 2015-2023 年研究期间第二高的死亡负担,仅到 2022 年超过。我们还估计,如果没有本世纪的适应,与高温相关的死亡负担会高出 +80.0%,尤其是在老年人中 +100.7% 在 80+ 岁的人群中。我们的结果强调了历史和正在进行的适应在最近夏季挽救生命的重要性,以及迫切需要制定更有效的策略来进一步降低即将到来的更炎热夏季的死亡负担。