Transportation ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-12 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10527-z Michal Bujak , Rafal Kucharski
Ride-pooling remains a promising emerging mode with a potential to contribute towards urban sustainability and emission reductions. Recent studies revealed complexity and diversity among travellers’ ride-pooling attitudes. So far, ride-poling analyses assumed homogeneity of ride-pooling travellers. This, as we demonstrate, leads to a false assessment of ride-pooling system performance. We experiment with an actual NYC demand from 2016 and classify travellers into four groups of various ride-pooling behaviours (value of time and penalty for sharing), as reported in the recent SP study from Netherlands. We replicate their behavioural characteristics, according to the population distribution, to obtain meaningful performance estimations. Results vary significantly from the homogeneous benchmark: mileage savings were lower, while the utility gains for travellers were greater. Observing performance of heterogeneous travellers, we find that those with a low value of time are most beneficial travellers in the pooling system, while those with an average penalty for sharing benefit the most. Notably, despite the highly variable travellers’ behaviour, the confidence intervals for the key performance indicators are reasonably narrow and system-wide performance remains predictable. Our results show that the incorrect assumption of homogeneous traits leads to a high dissatisfaction of 18.5% and a cancellation rate of 36%. Such findings shed a new light on the expected performance of large scale ride-pooling systems.
中文翻译:
在非确定性环境中对异质旅行者进行拼车服务评估
拼车仍然是一种有前景的新兴模式,有可能为城市可持续发展和减排做出贡献。最近的研究揭示了旅行者拼车态度的复杂性和多样性。到目前为止,拼车分析假设了拼车旅行者的同质性。正如我们所证明的,这会导致对拼车系统性能的错误评估。根据荷兰最近的 SP 研究报告,我们对 2016 年纽约市的实际需求进行了实验,并将旅行者分为四组不同的拼车行为(时间价值和共享惩罚)。我们根据人口分布复制他们的行为特征,以获得有意义的绩效评估。结果与同质基准有很大差异:节省的里程数较低,而旅行者的效用收益却较高。观察异质旅行者的表现,我们发现那些时间价值较低的旅行者是池系统中最受益的旅行者,而那些因共享而受到平均惩罚的旅行者受益最多。值得注意的是,尽管旅行者的行为变化很大,但关键绩效指标的置信区间相当窄,而且整个系统的绩效仍然是可预测的。我们的结果表明,对同质性状的错误假设导致 18.5% 的高不满和 36% 的取消率。这些发现为大规模拼车系统的预期性能提供了新的视角。