The present research develops a predictive model of prejudice. For nearly a century, psychology and other fields have sought to scientifically understand and describe the causes of prejudice. Numerous theories of prejudice now exist. Yet these theories are overwhelmingly defined verbally and thus lack the ability to precisely predict when and to what extent prejudice will emerge. The abundance of theory also raises the possibility of undetected overlap between constructs theorized to cause prejudice. Predictive models enable falsification and provide a way for the field to move forward. To this end, here we present 18 studies with ∼5,000 participants in seven phases of model development. After initially identifying major theorized causes of prejudice in the literature, we used a model selection approach to winnow constructs into a parsimonious predictive model of prejudice (Phases I and II). We confirm this model in a preregistered out-of-sample test (Phase III), test variations in operationalizations and boundary conditions (Phases IV and V), and test generalizability on a U.S. representative sample, an Indian sample, and a U.K. sample (Phase VI). Finally, we consulted the predictions of experts in the field to examine how well they align with our results (Phase VII). We believe this initial predictive model is limited and bad, but by developing a model that makes highly specific predictions, drawing on the state of the art, we hope to provide a foundation from which research can build to improve science of prejudice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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偏见模型 1.0：偏见的预测模型。


本研究开发了一个偏见的预测模型。近一个世纪以来，心理学和其他领域一直在寻求科学地理解和描述偏见的原因。现在存在许多偏见理论。然而，这些理论绝大多数都是口头定义的，因此缺乏精确预测偏见何时以及在多大程度上出现的能力。丰富的理论也增加了理论上导致偏见的结构之间未被发现的重叠的可能性。预测模型使证伪成为可能，并为该领域提供了向前发展的道路。为此，我们在这里展示了 18 项研究，涉及 5,000 名参与者，分为模型开发的七个阶段。在初步确定了文献中偏见的主要理论原因后，我们使用模型选择方法将结构筛选成一个简洁的偏见预测模型（第一阶段和第二阶段）。我们在预先注册的样本外测试（III 期）中确认了该模型，测试了操作化和边界条件的变化（IV 期和 V），并在美国代表性样本、印度样本和英国样本（VI 期）上测试了泛化性。最后，我们咨询了该领域专家的预测，以检查它们与我们的结果（第七阶段）的一致性。我们认为这个初始预测模型是有限且糟糕的，但通过开发一个可以进行高度具体预测的模型，利用最先进的技术，我们希望提供一个基础，从这个基础上可以建立研究以改进偏见科学。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 （c） 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。