The present study outlines the development and initial validation of a conditional reasoning test for risk and incident propensity (CRT-RIP). Individuals carry with them a wide array of experiences, attitudes, and dispositions that may influence their proneness for risk-taking and incident involvement. Yet, measuring risk propensity has proven challenging due to the high levels of transparency found in the self-report measures that are presently available. We initially developed 28 conditional reasoning items to measure risk and incident propensity. With four developmental samples, we evaluated item characteristics. After applying item decision guidelines for conditional reasoning tests, we retained 14 items. Using three test samples and with the 14-item CRT-RIP, we assessed predictive and incremental validity over five-factor personality traits and an explicit, self-report measure of risk propensity. With one final sample, we provided further validation of the 14-item CRT-RIP. Findings demonstrate initial success in predicting various safety behaviors and outcomes. Ability to measure risk propensity and to predict safety behaviors is valuable because of the profound consequences that may proceed failure to enact safety behaviors including property damage, injury, illness, or even death. We discuss potential applications and suggest directions for future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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风险和事件倾向的条件推理测试：开发和验证。


本研究概述了风险和事件倾向条件推理测试 (CRT-RIP) 的开发和初步验证。每个人都有各种各样的经历、态度和性格，这些可能会影响他们冒险和参与事件的倾向。然而，由于目前可用的自我报告措施具有很高的透明度，衡量风险倾向已被证明具有挑战性。我们最初开发了 28 个条件推理项目来衡量风险和事件倾向。通过四个发育样本，我们评估了项目特征。在应用条件推理测试的项目决策指南后，我们保留了 14 个项目。使用三个测试样本和 14 项 CRT-RIP，我们评估了五因素人格特征的预测有效性和增量有效性以及风险倾向的明确自我报告测量。通过一个最终样本，我们对 14 项 CRT-RIP 进行了进一步验证。研究结果表明，在预测各种安全行为和结果方面取得了初步成功。衡量风险倾向和预测安全行为的能力非常有价值，因为未能采取安全行为可能会产生深远的后果，包括财产损失、受伤、疾病甚至死亡。我们讨论潜在的应用并提出未来研究的方向。 （PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。