Paid parental leave has become a part of family policies in an increasing number of Western societies. Parental leave benefits may create varying incentives which can lead to heterogeneous fertility responses. The aim of this study is to examine whether and how the changes in second- and third-order fertility associated with the 2004 parental leave reform in Estonia vary depending on mothers’ education and ethnic background. The study draws on data from Estonian administrative registers on women born between 1960 and 1999, who had their first or second child between 1993 and 2014. Mixture cure models are estimated for the transitions to second and third births. We find that women with high educational attainment exhibit a stronger response, both in terms of accelerating the tempo and increasing the quantum of fertility, to the introduction of earnings-related parental leave benefits, than their counterparts with less schooling. In terms of fertility quantum, Estonian women show a stronger response than women from other ethnic groups. Regarding the tempo of childbearing, the results pertaining to ethnic differences are mixed. The study suggests that changes in fertility behavior associated with the introduction of earnings-related parental leave benefits are more pronounced among women with higher opportunity costs.

带薪育儿假已成为越来越多西方社会家庭政策的一部分。育儿假福利可能会产生不同的激励措施，从而导致不同的生育反应。本研究的目的是探讨与爱沙尼亚 2004 年育儿假改革相关的二阶和三阶生育率的变化是否以及如何因母亲的教育程度和种族背景而变化。该研究利用了爱沙尼亚行政登记册中关于 1960 年至 1999 年出生的妇女的数据，这些妇女在 1993 年至 2014 年期间生育了第一胎或第二胎。混合治疗模型针对向第二胎和第三胎的过渡进行了估计。我们发现，与受教育程度较低的女性相比，受教育程度较高的女性对于引入与收入相关的育儿假福利在加快生育速度和提高生育率方面表现出更强的反应。在生育量方面，爱沙尼亚女性比其他族裔女性表现出更强的反应。关于生育速度，与种族差异有关的结果好坏参半。研究表明，在机会成本较高的女性中，与收入相关的育儿假福利的引入带来的生育行为的变化更为明显。