Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears,Ecology Letters

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Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-07 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.14486
L Ruth Rivkin _{1,

2,

3} , Evan S Richardson ₄ , Joshua M Miller _{2,

3,

5} , Todd C Atwood ₆ , Steven Baryluk ₇ , Erik W Born ₈ , Corey Davis ₉ , Markus Dyck ₁₀ , Evelien de Greef ₁ , Kristin L Laidre ₁₁ , Nicholas J Lunn ₁₂ , Sara McCarthy ₁₃ , Martyn E Obbard _{14,

15} , Megan A Owen ₃ , Nicholas W Pilfold ₃ , Amelie Roberto-Charron ₁₀ , Øystein Wiig ₁₆ , Aryn P Wilder ₃ , Colin J Garroway ₁

Affiliation

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
Polar Bears International, Bozeman, Montana, USA.
San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, Escondido, California, USA.
Wildlife Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
MacEwan University, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
Department of Environment and Climate Change, Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada.
Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland.
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Department of Environment, Government of Nunavut, Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada.
Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Wildlife Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Wildlife Division, Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.
Wildlife Research and Development Section, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada.
Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada.
Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome‐environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.

中文翻译：

评估加拿大北极熊气候适应不良的风险

北极变暖的速度是世界其他地区的四倍，威胁着许多北极物种的生存。不确定北极野生动物是否有足够的时间来适应如此迅速变暖的环境。我们利用基因预测来衡量北极熊对气温变暖和海冰消失的适应不良风险（海熊）在加拿大北极地区采样。我们发现了当地适应海冰条件和温度的证据。对预测气候情景的基因组环境不匹配的预测表明，加拿大北极地区的北极熊不适应气候变暖的风险最大。虽然加拿大北极熊可能最有可能适应不良，但所有北极熊都面临着气候变化的潜在负面后果。鉴于海冰栖息地对北极熊的重要性，我们预计对未来变暖的适应不良已经在加拿大各地普遍存在。

更新日期：2024-08-07

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