The time people spend traveling has far reaching implications for their health and for environmental outcomes. Urban planning paradigms—such as that of the "15-minute city"—have consequently endeavoured to bring key services and amenities to residents within a walkable or cycleable 15–20-minute distance. These efforts notwithstanding, the policy levers that influence travel-related time allocation remain poorly understood. Drawing on a panel of household travel data from Germany covering 2005–2020, the present study analyses the role of 2 such levers—bicycle/pedestrian paths and fuel prices—as determinants of time allocation across modes. We start with a descriptive analysis that identifies a stable average travel time expenditure ranging between 65–70 min for women and 75–80 min for men until 2020, when it dropped precipitously as COVID-19 spread. We subsequently estimate fractional response models to identify the influence of the policy variables on time expenditures across motorized, nonmotorized, and public transit modes. We complete the analysis by feeding the model estimates into the World Heath Organization’s on-line Health and Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) to quantify the health and environmental impacts of the planned expansion of the bike path network in the city of Munich, comparing this with the impact of Germany’s recently introduced carbon tax on fuel. Both measures result in substantial benefits, with the implementation of the tax yielding a considerably higher benefit/cost ratio owing to its lower cost of implementation.

人们旅行的时间对他们的健康和环境结果有着深远的影响。因此，城市规划范式（例如“15 分钟城市”）致力于在 15-20 分钟步行或骑自行车距离内为居民提供关键服务和便利设施。尽管做出了这些努力，但影响旅行相关时间分配的政策杠杆仍然知之甚少。本研究利用德国 2005 年至 2020 年的家庭旅行数据，分析了自行车/行人路径和燃油价格这两个杠杆作为跨模式时间分配的决定因素的作用。我们首先进行了描述性分析，确定了 2020 年之前，女性平均出行时间支出稳定在 65-70 分钟，男性 75-80 分钟之间，但随着 COVID-19 的传播，这一数字急剧下降。随后，我们估计分数响应模型，以确定政策变量对机动、非机动和公共交通模式的时间支出的影响。我们通过将模型估计输入世界卫生组织的在线健康和经济评估工具 (HEAT) 来完成分析，以量化慕尼黑市自行车道网络计划扩建对健康和环境的影响，并将其与德国最近征收的碳税对燃料的影响。这两项措施都带来了巨大的好处，由于实施成本较低，税收的实施产生了相当高的效益/成本比。