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Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-06 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17434
Tiem van der Deure 1, 2 , Tim Maes 3 , Tine Huyse 3, 4 , Anna-Sofie Stensgaard 1
Affiliation  

The freshwater snail Bulinus truncatus is an important intermediate host for trematode parasites causing urogenital schistosomiasis, a tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of B. truncatus, combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life‐history data obtained through extensive lab‐based snail‐temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for B. truncatus encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.

中文翻译:


气候变化可能加剧非洲和欧洲尿路血吸虫病的传播



淡水蜗牛 Bulinus truncatus 是引起泌尿生殖道血吸虫病的吸虫寄生虫的重要中间宿主,这是一种影响超过 1.5 亿人的热带疾病。尽管其医学重要性,但其全球分布以及气候变化对其未来传播的潜在影响仍然存在不确定性。在这里,我们研究了 B. truncatus 的分布,结合相关和机械建模方法的输出,充分利用该物种的实验和发生数据,并创建比以往更可靠的分布预测。我们利用从不同来源收集的 273 个出现点以及气候和(生物)物理环境变量的组合构建了总体相关物种分布模型。此外,还构建了机械热适宜性模型,通过通过广泛的实验室蜗牛温度实验获得的最新生活史数据进行参数化,并辅以广泛的文献综述。我们的研究结果表明,目前 B. truncatus 的适宜栖息地包括萨赫勒地区、中东和非洲地中海部分,从南欧延伸到莫桑比克。通过这两种方法确定的合适区域通常与泌尿生殖系统血吸虫病患病率较高的区域一致。对未来的模型预测表明,适宜面积总体净增长高达 17%。新的适宜栖息地位于南欧、中东和中非大部分地区,而萨赫勒地区的适宜栖息地将消失。 蜗牛栖息地适宜性的变化可能会大大增加非洲和南欧部分地区泌尿生殖道血吸虫病传播的风险,同时降低萨赫勒地区的风险。
更新日期:2024-08-06
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